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  1. M

    The weekly: Greece to default/restructure THIS weekend? thread

    I insist on my use of the word "shenanigans". I believe you may see FSA complaints on this in the not so distant future. Whether it's what should or should not happen is irrelevant. What happened is. [B] I disagree... What will help PIIGS is austerity, a credible plan for growth plus low...
  2. M

    The weekly: Greece to default/restructure THIS weekend? thread

    Huh? So how do you explain that all the mkt participants, including yours truly, heard of the coming changes yesterday afternoon, well ahead of the official announcement this morning? What the heck do you mean there is no haircut? You're not aware of the terminology used in the repo market...
  3. M

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    No, I don't. As I mentioned, the guarantee offered to overseas depositors, according to EEA law, HAS to be the same as the one offered to domestic ones. However, as you rightly point out, it is being litigated/negotiated. I agree w/you about the best thing to do about bankruptcy, in...
  4. M

    The weekly: Greece to default/restructure THIS weekend? thread

    The raising of the haircuts on Italian repos, which was "pre-announced", strictly unofficially, last night and was finally made public this morning.
  5. M

    So, will Berlusconi survive the next week?

    No, it doesn't, not really... It normalizes interest rates to their long-term structural and fundamentally justified levels. The fact that sov CDS is an off-balance sheet derivative that has allowed people to speculate in the mkt they shouldn't be speculating in is neither here nor there. The...
  6. M

    The weekly: Greece to default/restructure THIS weekend? thread

    Since I try to stay as far away as possible from sov CDS, I am not sure what goes on in that stupid mkt. I am mainly referring to the bond mkt.
  7. M

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Well, how would you like the FDIC to say the exact same to you when the bank you have your money in goes down? To reiterate, I am not referring to the large institutional deposits made by various local council idiots across the UK. I am talking about the individual Ma & Pa accounts that were...
  8. M

    The weekly: Greece to default/restructure THIS weekend? thread

    No idea... Nobody (that I know of) trades any of this stuff any more. The mkt is broken.
  9. M

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    You forgot a few things... "Screw some depositors, but not others; break your own laws; renege on international treaties". It's working beautifully indeed.
  10. M

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Well, not judging by the "success" the EFSF has enjoyed so far...
  11. M

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    No idea, but I don't see anyone offering this...
  12. M

    So, will Berlusconi survive the next week?

    Sov CDS being castrated is the best thing that could possibly happen to the mkt.
  13. M

    Italian Bond yields to hit 8% by end of this week!! *CELEBRATION*

    Erm, Italy is no Japan, in a variety of important ways.
  14. M

    can someone explain Italy 10 Year bond importance

    Yep... There's no EMU w/o Italy.
  15. M

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    +1 Total calamity in BTPS this fine morning and SuperMario not being too helpful.
  16. M

    The weekly: Greece to default/restructure THIS weekend? thread

    New 1y BOT (Italian t-bill) traded in the grey mkt at 7% this morning, after the LCH shenanigans.
  17. M

    can someone explain Italy 10 Year bond importance

    Because Italy is the 3rd largest govt bond mkt in the world, w/arnd $1.8trn outstanding, if I am not mistaken.
  18. M

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    FWIW, I'm hearing some chatter in the mkt that there are peeps getting out of the HKD depeg trades.
  19. M

    Greek default vs. Greek owned banks abroad?

    Depends on the specific nature of the legal relationship between the parent and the subsidiary.
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