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Somehow I'm guessing the bilateral extradition treaty between the Cayman Islands and the Kingdom isn't all that comprehensive, if one even exists....

Also consider that the world of oil prices isn't static and there's a known curve at which more supply comes online. You don't just "turn back on" oil sands, it's a many month process. At which point all the fracking that shut down because of low prices has already started back up, flooded the...

A federal order to keep coal and nuclear plants from retiring could reshape government's relationship with the power sector, regulators and analysts say. https://www.utilitydive.com/news/how-trumps-soviet-style-coal-directive-would-upend-power-markets/524906/

It's essentially like every regulated monopoly except there's no return on capital. They are allowed to set postal rates so that they exactly break even. if they ran a surplus they would have to lower rates until they broke even, if they run a deficit they have to raise rates to make it up. This...

Which is irrelevant to the fact that no private company anywhere would think it a bargain to get monopoly access to mailboxes in exchange for the requirements I listed above. You may be surprised at how many state granted monopolies there are in the US. Literally thousands. Every single...

A binary option is essentially the delta of a vanilla option at that strike, i.e. if the delta of a call at strike X is .75 then the binary will be priced at .75 reflecting a 75% chance of the binary expiring in the money. Therefore the delta of the binary, which is what you're talking about...

If you meet the accredited investor criteria from SEC Reg D rule 501 ( net worth of at least $1,000,000, excluding the value of one's primary residence, or have income at least $200,000 each year for the last two years (or $300,000 combined income if married) and have the expectation to make the...

Funny thing, most of the "pages" on this post are only a couple posts long for me, which tells me that the 15 or so people I ignore must be making the majority of the posts here!

I'm not sure how it follows that a housing crash would make a currency fall. Currency forwards are set by interest rate differentials, so you're essentially saying that a housing rate fall would result in significantly higher interest rates. I'm not sure that makes any sense?

Most households anywhere in the world at any time are "heavily weighed in Real estate with minimal to no other financial assets"!

What did you use for your treasuries interest rates? How far are your calculations off, fraction of a percent or whole percents?

Can you imagine being told that you have to run a business that receives no government support, it's not a monopoly and in fact companies like Fedex and UPS can pick off the lucrative pieces that you used to use to cross subsidize the mandatory service, and that mandatory service is to send a...

You were directly asked to support your statement about subsidies, which you couldn't because it was incorrect. Can you support this statement, or do you just keep throwing out crap without regard for accuracy or any knowledge of wtf you're talking about? The only annual appropriation to the...

Your statement is internally inconsistent. If all the wealthy and the companies are supposedly fleeing an area, it would drive house prices down. This whole supply and demand concept.....

Except the average hedge fund does outperform the average trader, especially when it comes to their targeted goals which are often much more about correlation than absolute returns. It's a profession like engineering or being a doctor or a scientist. Certainly there may be a few savants out...

Do you say that because the earnings season is limited and assuming you won't use the capital elsewhere the rest of the time? It does seem like you could spread it out enough that if there was a statistical edge you'd see very little drawdown.

Better lucky and right than right and unlucky sometimes right! Agree that this is an interesting subject, will look up your other post as well.

So first I apologize for my simplistic reply, it sounds like you've looked at this more and with more rigor than I have. Your findings are very interesting, I've put the subject on my list of things to research some more. A couple of random thoughts that you may or may not have already...

It's not really a supportable assumption that the current quarter move would be related to the average move over the last x quarters for several reasons. First, averages. It's possible the stock moved almost zero for 9 of those quarters and 40% in one of them. It's the shape of the distribution...

What percentage of people who don't invest in hedge funds have any idea what correlation in returns is and why institutional money that does invest in hedge funds cares about it far more than absolute returns? Antecdotally it would appear to approach 100%!