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Might want that 3450 print first.

Setting up a good sell here. EDIT: Rallying above 3450 voids that call for today.

I just wrote this on my prior post above the one you quoted... I'm not stepping in front of the freight train, though. Need to first see some evidence of a top in real time when we get there.

Over the last 4 weeks or so - we had 5 corrections/down moves ranging between 51- 93 points. The largest preceding up move was 166,50 points. This last leg up is currently at 104 points. Yes, so far all of them was recovered, but it can easily happen again. Even bull markets retrace.

Printed a new ATH the last minute today like yesterday. No mercy for the bears. :) I'm thinking 3450 tomorrow, but it's possible that level will trigger some selling for a drop down to 3390 by Week End.

Where are you getting slippage? Are you using market orders both for entries and exits?

So far another range bound session - while NQ have beautiful moves.

I can see it by Week End, but why today? Seems unlikely to me. Not saying I can't see it happen, it's just less likely, IMO. :)

Higher time frame does appear heavy here, though. And NQ isn't particularly strong either. So, could easily break, also. Sit on hands time for me. Waiting to see some more firming up at this level if going long.

Most likely for today, IMO, is that the LOD is in and we'll make a new HOD. Still uncertain of course. No take-off yet. :)

Why are you trading counter-trend? You should focus on capturing the trend instead, i.e., the larger moves.

Updated data as of now suggests 10 % odds of new highs and a 50 % odds of new lows - with a 40 % chance then that the range is set. Let's see where she goes. Any takers? EDIT: If we are to print new lows or close at the lows - we should not trade (much) above 20,50 from now and to the Close.

Agreed. The way I see it - there's no strong edge either way at the moment, but with stronger odds of a new low. That can of course change in an instant. I'm happy to break even today as I'm a trapped short. Ideally we stay below 20/24 from here.

For the chart pattern guys we now have an IHS in place and at the same time we're setting up the right shoulder of an H&S. Make your pick. :)

He may have started with 20K, but he had incredible leverage at that propshop and when he went out on his own I believe he started with 6-700K. Can double check the actual figure later.

My intraday model (which is frequently wrong) suggests lower odds of new highs from here and about 60 % odds of new lows (but probably not much below 3400).

Close enough. It all depends on NQ now, IMO. If it keeps selling - so will ES... But we're in a support zone now, so risky to short.

Watch out when NQ hits unchanged. If no support there --> More downside due.

1st target below = 3407. If no bottom there - we most likely print 3400 / 3394. Assuming the LOD breaks of course. But that's my bet as of now...

I don't see why a pullback to 3400/3390 would be unlikely. I'd say it's more likely than not given today's Open. Bullish week or not.