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  1. M

    Momentum in financial markets

    Abandon hope, sjfan... Methinks you're fighting a lost cause.
  2. M

    Why is deflation bad?

    While your fundamental argument makes some sense, I would say that what you describe is an issue with severe deflation only. As demonstrated by the Japanese experience, the system can survive for a long while with moderate deflation/disinflation. The problem with moderate deflation is not one...
  3. M

    Switzerland. Is this true?

    My guess is that they pay somewhere in the vicinity of Euribor (which, for 3M, is 1.051%). It doesn't really matter, 'cause the current rate differential isn't enough to compensate you for holding EUR rather than Sfr. Huh? Like everywhere and forever?
  4. M

    Fu Piigs

    I would have to disagree with you there, sire... See attached (since I can only attach one file, I have used Spanish data). That we're in the middle of a competitive devaluation, maybe?
  5. M

    Switzerland. Is this true?

    I think the OP may be referring to the fact that rates in Switzerland at the moment are so low (3M CHF LIBOR is at 0.17%), you get no interest paid on your deposits.
  6. M

    Why is deflation bad?

    This is a marvelously one-sided and disingenous argument...
  7. M

    If I think a stock is going from $25 to $35 overnight...

    You should have never expected a simple answer in the first place. It always depends and options are complex instruments. This offers both opportunities and challenges, but it def doesn't offer free easy money.
  8. M

    Fu Piigs

    Huh? Smth is telling me that, right about now, I would actually rather live in, say, Germany than in, say, Greece, Ireland or Spain. For a whole variety of reasons, most of which are rather self-explanatory.
  9. M

    Fu Piigs

    Firstly, C6H, showing the German banks alone is misleading. Why don't you show the same ratios for the peripheral banks? It's not clear that they will be better or worse, but at least it would be a meaningful comparison. The point is that, while the German banks may be in bad shape, the...
  10. M

    Fu Piigs

    If you don't know what kurzarbeit is, I am not sure you're qualified to ask this question. For your guide, German unemployment rate has gone from 8.1% in Jan10 to 7.5% in Dec10. The total change during in German employment during 2010 was a cumulative gain of 262,000 jobs. Of these there...
  11. M

    Volatility estimators

    I would suggest Google. The first one, as stated in the document, is the annualised standard deviation of log returns, squared, aka variance, if memory serves.
  12. M

    Accounting tweak could save Fed from losses

    Huh? If you want to make a particular point, it helps to have your facts straight. The Fed balance sheet, as of last week, stood at a total of $2.47trn and change. UST holdings don't constitute the entire amount, so I have to assume that $5trn figure is hyperbole. As to Fed "profits"...
  13. M

    Federal Reserve moves all losses onto taxpayer's back

    How do you know it's not taxpayer's front? In seriousness, what do you mean "moves"? Everything is already backstopped by the taxpayer, so the accounting change the SMR paper highlights is just a way of avoiding having to mark-to-mkt the Fed portfolio.
  14. M

    Question on Illinois Bonds CDS

    Well, I think this what happens every time to politicians/officials who find their countries/states in trouble. Their first instinctive reaction is to locate some speculators to blame for attacking their sovereign. So, naturally, as a first step they would always try to implement some measures...
  15. M

    Question on Illinois Bonds CDS

    Why what?
  16. M

    Smart Money Sells Straddles!

    Awww, that's good, 'bullet payment'...
  17. M

    Smart Money Sells Straddles!

    Chuck Norris makes money selling straddles, no matter what the mkt does. Obviously, this is a no brainer, 'cause even when Chuck Norris buys straddles, the mkt pays him money.
  18. M

    This is mind blowing

    It's not just China... Do it for a place like Dubai or Moscow and you're likely to see smth similar.
  19. M

    Could the U.S. central bank go broke?

    I think this is incorrect.
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