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  1. M

    GS bullshit scare tactic

    What have you read, precisely? And what is the reason it's a "complete BS"?
  2. M

    Is Swisse the only safe haven left?

    CHF is a bubble only if you believe things in Europe are OK. Personally, I prefer SEK and NOK.
  3. M

    Hedge Funds Borrow the Most Since 2007 to Purchase U.S. Stocks

    Wait a sec, I thought hedge funds weren't the problem during the crisis? How is hedge fund leverage a disaster, based on the 2008 experience?
  4. M

    GS bullshit scare tactic

    This is silly... This is an analysis written by an economist that you haven't actually read. Yet you believe that it's bullshit. Why? 'Cause it was written by a Goldman economist? Because the analysis doesn't agree with your view? Moreover, you have no doubt noticed that this is CNBC...
  5. M

    Japan Spirals into Bankruptcy?

    Well, it's not really about the ECB... It's a standard rates-->credit dynamic, as far as I know. High-quality credit (be it corp or sov) is mainly about duration, which means that, in terms of notional, you need more of the shorter-dated paper to get the same exposure. As things start looking...
  6. M

    anyone daytrade the ZF (5 YR Note)? It seems pretty weak

    Rolls are a science unto themselves.
  7. M

    Japan Spirals into Bankruptcy?

    Well, this is the interesting bit... The curve steepens only until default is a remote possibility and it's all about duration/interest rate. As the mkt starts pricing an actual default and a sovereign starts trading like credit, the curve actually inverts sharply. You can see this if you...
  8. M

    anyone daytrade the ZF (5 YR Note)? It seems pretty weak

    Read the Bible! "Treasury Bond Basis" by Burghardt, Belton et al
  9. M

    Yearly return... What should amateurs aim for?

    If you're returning in excess of your personal funding rate, you should be happy.
  10. M

    Iceland refuses to honour international agreements

    I am going to have to dissent on this... Firstly, the author of the paper you cite sits on the MPC of the Central Bank of Iceland, so I do believe she's biased. Secondly, what she's describing is a very one-sided and convenient interpretation of the directive. Sure, it's a possible...
  11. M

    Iceland refuses to honour international agreements

    Because, as I have repeatedly mentioned, the Icelandic govt, on behalf of their people, signed up to an EEA law that mandates a certain minimum level of depositor protection. The Icelandic parliament signed this EEA regulation into national law. If Icelanders decide to renege on the Icesave...
  12. M

    Anyone knows about John Richardson?

    Chuck Norris, on the other hand...
  13. M

    Iceland refuses to honour international agreements

    I have no idea... All I know is that what should happen is the expulsion of Iceland from the EEA.
  14. M

    Iceland refuses to honour international agreements

    The problem with Icesave was precisely that it didn't operate under the full FSCS. Instead, they opted for the 'passport exemption', under the EEA rules.
  15. M

    Japan Spirals into Bankruptcy?

    I guess what you're saying is that the yen curve is, historically, sorta steep. Much of that is a result of Kyle Bass-like peeps betting on the collapse.
  16. M

    Japan Spirals into Bankruptcy?

    Here you go
  17. M

    How do I calculate sharpe ratio?

    Google?
  18. M

    Money & Banking Question

    Because this would violate the whole point of money. It would also violate the separation of fiscal and monetary mandates.
  19. M

    Currency Options Seem Very Cheap

    That data has nothing directly to do with the mean reversion characteristics of the two mkts. It just tells you how options on these two assets have been historically priced.
  20. M

    Roll down and Carry for 2/5

    No... I responded to you on the other forum.
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