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Looks sensible to me. The point is that you get to choose. If you don't like the drawdown, go for the less aggressive strategy. It's a lot better than a lot of funds out there that give you this return/drawdown profile without your knowledge, don't you think?

Sorry, what's wrong with marking the MBS portfolio to par again?

Erm, it ain't about the keyboard...

I think it's a pretty good idea to offer investors the ability to choose a particular level of return/drawdown tradeoff. Moreover, their strategies overall performed as one would expect, so, at first glance, looks like it's a good shop.

Yes, if memory serves, Argy sov CDS payout (or lack thereof) is the one case that's still going through the New York courts. I think Merrills is the defendant, but I am not 100% sure. As to OTM JGB puts, there are ways. Problem is that payer/put skew is ridiculously expensive in Japanese...

Yeah, looks like someone thought it was QE being unwound early.

Sov CDS is a scam product... If you think you're guaranteed to get paid, you'd better think again and have an army of lawyers at your beck and call. I could go into gory details, if you like, since I spent some time looking at these things last year. More importantly, even if you were willing...

You can't buy these tails cheaply. Maybe whoever got into this trade initially a long time ago could have done it at such a low cost that they could sit on the trade indefinitely. At the moment, the mkts price all these tails in such a way that you can't afford to sit on them for years. Why...

Firstly, you know what his actual trading track record is like? Secondly, what is a man who's supposedly not interested in making predictions doing predicting that metals and ags are going to outperform? Point is that he used to be a relatively good academic with some interesting ideas...

The only way I would ever play it (as I mentioned on the other thread) is by buying far OTM long-dated JPY puts. Ideally, you a) get a nice pickup on the fwds (at least judging by USDJPY); b) if you do it vs the basket, rather than just USD, you can probably get a lower vol, 'cause of the...

It's not flawed... The point is that Japan is a country with large internal imbalances (inter-generational, etc), which manifest themselves in all these cross holdings of various obligations. Moreover, the political system is very dysfunctional. All in all, it's a very complicated dynamic...

I disagree. My view is that you get precisely the politicians you deserve and you bear responsibility for their decisions.

I think you should visit HowardCohodas's thread. He's a man not afraid of a little risk. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=212817

One can make money trading using voodoo...

Erm, and your point is what? As to betting against Taleb, I think his trading track record is quite well known.

It depends on whether you believe in the technical analysis & charting mumbo-jumbo.

My view is that the Japanese situation is dire, but they're suffering from the sort of chronic condition that is likely to take years, if not decades to actually show symptoms. So I am not one of these people betting on a Japanese collapse that you hear about on the news. If I had to do it, I...

This is also relatively detailed: http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/surely-there-is-nothing-%E2%80%9Cfunny%E2%80%9D-about-what-is-going-on-in-japan/

Well, pls feel free to offer an alternative. Keep in mind that Japan, a resource- and land area-poor, densely-populated island nation that just happens to be located in a geologically-active region, wants to have a degree of energy independence. It's very easy to criticise, but I don't see the...

Well, there's a view that most mature Western economies have plateaued in terms of the pace of innovation and technological progress. Tyler Cowen has written a short book about this. I haven't read it yet, but it's supposed to be pretty good...