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  1. M

    FX cash vs fwds

    Do the trade somewhere else...
  2. M

    2y5y10y Fly and the 5y10y30y fly ratios

    You should be able to find it here: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=173859&perpage=6&highlight=eurex&pagenumber=2
  3. M

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    SNB credit lines matter because you need them to trade w/the SNB. If you're a counterparty that doesn't have lines to the SNB, you might end up trading with another such cpty at levels below 1.20 and there is nothing the SNB will be able to do about it, which could lead to actual prints below...
  4. M

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Not really valid to compare GBPDEM and EURCHF floors, for obvious reasons. Moreover, who's to say that 9bn is all they got? They could be on the bid in 100bn or 500bn tomorrow, assuming they still have full political support from all quarters.
  5. M

    Strike in CME pits?????

    Amen to dat... Apparently (so I am told by one of the brokers I talk to), it was hard to get a price, 'cause the striking locals were spamming the mkt-makers with RFQs. Sorta like a DoS attack for Eurodollar options trades, imagine that!
  6. M

    Strike in CME pits?????

    I can see why they're sore... It's smth like 215k contracts that "traded through", apparently. To not get your hands on any of that action must be rather frustrating.
  7. M

    Strike in CME pits?????

    It's the Eurodollar options pit locals that are staging a bit of a protest (apparently, about 50 of them hanging outside the pit). The issue is a bunch of reasonably large trades done yesterday.
  8. M

    2y5y10y Fly and the 5y10y30y fly ratios

    Well, if you search in some of my prior posts in this particular forum, you'll find the few books/papers that I have always recommended. Also, I think there's a PDF attachment from Eurex in one of them that may prove useful. As to the number of lots, 100 lots of the belly was just a nice...
  9. M

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    I have to say that I am enjoying the witty repartee almost as much, if not more...
  10. M

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    I, for one, am enjoying it, in a sort of an idle academic way; it's satisfying some sort of intellectual curiosity, I'm sure.
  11. M

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Huh? The price came back to 1.2 because the SNB was in the mkt. It only traded below 1.2 in smaller venues, where banks who don't have lines w/the SNB traded. Speaking of casinos, I found this article pretty interesting and an example of actual "casino" edge...
  12. M

    2y5y10y Fly and the 5y10y30y fly ratios

    Traditionally, it's done w/ weights that make the position DV01 neutral. Currently, for TU/FV/TY (aka ZT/ZF/ZN) fly: 61/100/32 For FV/TY/US (aka ZF/ZT/ZB) fly: 78/100/27 For FV/TY/WN (aka ZF/ZT/UB) fly: 78/100/16 All in lots, based on current prices and spot DV01s.
  13. M

    How MMs quote IV for ATM Straddles?

    You need to ask IVolatility.com about the details of their calculation. I suspect it's the usual issue w/ the IV based on spot, rather than the fwd, which is, strictly speaking, wrong. Everyone seems to do it regardless.
  14. M

    financial futures first notice date (FND)

    Unlikely that such a brier exists...
  15. M

    Estimating vol skew from historical underlying price data

    +1 All sorts of things you can do. Whether they're useful in practice is an entirely different question.
  16. M

    CIA devalues Russia on purpose so India is ahead in GDP

    Hahaha, this is the funniest sh1t I have read in a long long time... Thanks!
  17. M

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Yes, it could all get interesting, but much depends on how you interpret the various messages that have come out of the minutes. Obviously, the mkt is choosing to treat it as a significantly more hawkish signal than was expected. We shall see if this is, indeed, the case.
  18. M

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    I think it's perfectly logical, given how we have seen them perform together for a while now.
  19. M

    CIA devalues Russia on purpose so India is ahead in GDP

    Right, this makes a lot of sense... NOT. You're extrapolating rather wildly. Just 'cause the Mongols did a lot of conquering in their day doesn't really imply that their part descendants are raging imperialists. If that were the case, wouldn't the whole world be speaking Greek now? As to...
  20. M

    Dr. Burzynski and the Cancer Cure (Video)

    Alternatively, this Burzynski guy preys on the most desperate and hopeless people out there, all just to enrich himself. In that case, the FDA isn't doing anywhere near enough to stop people like him.
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