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Well, sure. But is it possible that there can exist a trading model which could identify swing highs/lows with a very high degree of certainty? Not 100 %, but maybe 90%? Equally, isn't it true that a real big player could effectively print a swing high/low in the market (if only for a brief...

Thanks for the link. I'm considering if I should actually start from page 1 and read through it. With all due respect to everyone involved, I'm not convinced that there is one thing such as the obvious to be found or understood and maybe this thread is one big smoke screen, but it certainly is a...

You know that for a fact? :) The way I see it there's two types of swing high/low - fast and slow. With a fast swing you pretty much need to have a limit placed in advance, i.e., anticipating a move off a specific level or price target. R10 levels have been mentioned. In a way - this is...

Well, to be precise then. Did you refer to a low risk long entry or a low risk short entry? I know nothing, so I don't think my opinion matters or is of any interest to anyone. However, since you ask, I'd say that for a low risk long entry it's still a tad too early, unless you're looking for a...

Buying swings lows. Selling swing highs. Validly recognizing them in real time is a different matter, though.

The risk for what exactly?

It dropped 20 points below his low risk entry (unless he suggests it actually was a short), so not sure if you should. :)

Starting to. The last major drop was approx. 240 ES points over 16 days. We're currently down approx. 185 points over 2 days, so we may have some more downside potential still. I think we'll print 4009/4000 before this leg down is over.

Bollinger and every other indicator is mathematical, too. Could be a TSF. If not - maybe correlated instruments. Not sure if that has any value, though. So maybe not. A common theme in the thread seems to be perception. Seeing the right things or seeing what you need to see. Another common...

Here's the thing. If you're referring to the NQ trade you closed out and which almost went back to your entry point last week - you would have felt frustration if it stopped you out breakeven, too. Why the f''k didn't I take profit when I had the chance? Just be glad you got a handsome profit...

That's the thing. While he didn't say it explicitly, Rickshaw Man probably blew his account during last year's covid plunge averaging down on falling prices. If position size is static a bull will get fat on profits and can easily handle some drawdown. But this method doesn't scale particularly...

Got it. Just wanted to clarify that as you seemed to imply that you were actually holding longs from 4220 still. I wouldn't worry too much about that. To be honest - as soon as people start trading multiple lots it gets confusing quickly. There was a guy here a few years back who pretty much...

Were I supposed to give the answers to these? I think I got the first 4. Need to think a bit on the last 4. Slowly reading through this now. Thanks. Bollinger?

Montaigne? Haven't read a trading book in ages. Trying my best to forget everything I 'learned' from them in the past.

FIFO = first in / first out. Surely your purchases from yesterday were offset by your sales today - unless you're trading multiple accounts? Meaning you're not effectively still holding the longs from 4220/4205, but you lowered your average price assuming you still have open positions.

That's interesting to hear others notice it, too. The rule of 10 as it was taught to me. With heightened volatility and higher nominal prices today - it's often R20 and when volatility really picks up you can get 30 point swings, too. Well - if I knew with 100 % certainty that I was on the...

Could this be it...? I think it's true. Obvious also, but maybe not obvious to everyone. And even if I or someone else knows or understands this - there's a difference between knowing the path and walking it. But if you understand this basic pre-requisite you could start taking measures (where...

3 % down net change. Down 3,41 % on the LOD print.

Last week's low = 4120. Can't rule out a visit there. Below that - 4110/00 should be major support.

The last time we had a similar 'pattern' - the day actually closed down 3 %, so might be worth some caution. Not a call - merely a warning. I'm anticipating a bounce here, but I know nothing. This could swing both ways. Especially with NQ dropping.