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I know you don't care about the reasons. I, on the other hand, don't care about the politics, so we're all one big happy family.

Yep, it appears that it's the refinery shutdown that's doing this. EIA data yesterday was interesting in that regard and seems to suggest that it's all about the crack spread, rather than the price of crude.

Real time is a bit difficult and I doubt such data exists, tbh. The source of for all of this is Platts (as part of the their Steel Business Briefing service here: http://www.steelbb.com/), so if anyone has it, it will be them.

It ain't there, but you can, kinda sorta, build it... LIBOR can be found here: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/USD3MTD156N?rid=253 For the 3M OIS rate, the only thing that's publicly available (that I know of) are the closes for the FedFunds futures strip here...

OKI, I understand...

Here: Long term charts (for some price series) can be found here: http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=iron-ore&months=360 These blogs cover the various commodity stories quite well...

I guess I can imagine this scenario. How confident are you that this is the way things will unfold? Also given your timeline, I'm gonna have to sell my gold right after it outperforms and before the 40% correction. But if everyone tries to do that, isn't it gonna be a case of everyone...

OKI-DOKI, but if this is all just about demand for gold by central banks and others like them, based purely on "status", couldn't we say that gold is a bubble?

+1

It was a rhetorical statement. I don't seriously think that such an objective methodology exists out there.

OK, so according to your logic, platinum, for example, was also a real bubble. 'Cause in 1972 an ounce of gold used to buy something like 1/3 of an ounce of platinum and now it buys nearly 3x of the very same metal. Similar with silver. Can you explain this to me? Note: all my data comes...

This is mostly about internal LibDem politics. The Tories (aka the Conservatives) aren't going to let this happen, or at least I hope so. The problem, of course, is that it can turn into a big stink that would endanger the coalition, with will in turn threaten the spending cuts. That's in...

If my recollection is correct, this is precisely the phenomenon that gave us Taleb the Philosopher. Prior to this, he used to be Taleb the Options Trader.

We're all mere mortals... I would love to have an objective test that would help me understand whether gold, for example, is a bubble or if it's undervalued.

Capula is a bit different. Their emphasis is on bond relative value (as well as derivatives), rather than discretionary macro. Both do a bit of everything, but they have different weights attached to different strategies. And yes, relative value involves doing spreads, flies, bonds vs...

Just out of curiosity, how do you know which one's the bubble and the Ponzi scheme here?

Right, so I am sorta kinda happy to discuss this separately, if you insist (even though it's a very vague statement). However, what does this have to do with the patently silly content of the linked article? And pls do tell me what exactly I am personalizing.

You're just not making any sense, mate, I'm sorry...

Omigod, this has to be one of the silliest things I have ever read... Still, good for a laugh, I guess.

Well, with all due respect, I emphatically disagree with this. I think we haven't even begun to scratch the surface. I also believe there's actual interesting work that has been done and continues to be done. While there's a fair bit of funny stuff that goes on in economics (just like it goes...