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  1. M

    Europe strikes deal to push cost of bank failure on investors

    Bail-in's are the right thing to do. The Danes were the first (after the crisis) to do it in February 2011 with Amagerbanken and they were 100% right. Taxpayer should be senior to the most senior bond holder and only junior to the insured depositor, period. As to derivative exposure...
  2. M

    Europe strikes deal to push cost of bank failure on investors

    There's an argument that some degree of protection of deposits is a) efficient; and b) actually can prevent large systemic crises. I happen to agree with that and we have empirical evidence to that effect. However, above and beyond the threshold, what you say above is spot on. You probably...
  3. M

    UK is broke

    How you know I am not one of them corrupt Italians? Cazzo vaffanculo coglioni
  4. M

    UK is broke

    See above...
  5. M

    UK is broke

    Looks like I picked the wrong year to live in the UK. Poor deal ole Blighty! I only got one thing to say:
  6. M

    Europe strikes deal to push cost of bank failure on investors

    There's not a country in the whole wide world where ALL depositors, regardless of the amounts, are fully protected by an (ultimately) taxpayer-funded deposit guarantee scheme. A depositor whose deposit in a given bank exceeds the guaranteed threshold is just a senior creditor and there's...
  7. M

    Europe strikes deal to push cost of bank failure on investors

    Yeah, unbelievable! How dare they impose losses on the people who actually took risk and invested in these banks! Outrageous! Having the taxpayer pay for the bank bailouts is the true capitalist way! Just like they did in Ireland with AIB (see here...
  8. M

    US is no different than Greece

    I might be. And yes, could be that euro will strengthen, unless, of course, the European countries not printing money means there ain't no euro no more, in which case it will weaken. Which way this cookie crumbles, I dunno...
  9. M

    US is no different than Greece

    Ah, finally, an easy question :)... I dunno, mate, we're in a tough spot with all sorts of crazy stuff happening. We're facing a LOT of unknown unknowns in the Eurozone, Japan and China. My optimistic central scenario is that these places will have to go through a long process of...
  10. M

    US is no different than Greece

    Yep, I iz on same page here...
  11. M

    US is no different than Greece

    Sounds like a plan and makes a lot of sense to me... Speaking of productive assets, I am hearing that condos in Miami are still pretty cheap.
  12. M

    US is no different than Greece

    Sure, I can see that... Problem is that these productive assets are gonna be producing USD, aren't they? There's no escaping USD, I'm afraid...
  13. M

    US is no different than Greece

    Well, yes, could be... But short USD vs what? I am a big fan of Ghana Cedi, myself.
  14. M

    US is no different than Greece

    If Kyle Bass's trade is short JGBs, it's a silly one, IMHO. You really don't wanna be short an asset where you can get your balls squeezed before you get paid. And the BoJ can easily do that if and when it wants to. Moreover, you have to pay for the privilege of being short, which, with an...
  15. M

    Goldman trader fined by CME

    1. He tried to trade 150 lots in total to cover the tail. OI was, obviously, orders of magnitude bigger. 2. No, it's not the height of stupidity. My guess is that he erroneously thought that the mkt could handle 150 lots of TY. But this was Dec 2008, when sh1t was hitting the fan. 3...
  16. M

    Why did Japan say they want 2% inflation when they are panicking with 10y bonds @ 1%?

    Spot on... The Korekiyo Takahashi solution.
  17. M

    Question for Bond Spread Traders

    It depends on the spread, innit?
  18. M

    Goldman trader fined by CME

    To be fair, he didn't do anything wrong on the face of it... He just tried to trade big size during an illiquid time in the mkt. It wasn't done to manipulate the closing price or anything of the sort, so it's not clear what they could go after him for.
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