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ByLo, just curious. Is that 'only' your prediction or are you positioned accordingly. If so, are you outright net short the common stocks/ETFs or long puts?

Of course. And markets are efficient. LMAO

Or the next David Harding... whooops scrap that, he's a trend follower and according to Surf's philosophy shouldn't even exist

I use Excel for a lot of my backtesting. Very underrated trading tool.

I thought the opposite. She's pretty hot! :cool:

Paves the way for another Nazi coup leading to the 4th Reich. Damn those Krauts!

You're creating a synthetic long GBP/EUR position. This has nothing to do with hedging.

I'm with you, shorting every uptick and every gap up relentlessly. No stops needed. There will never ever be any counter rallies or short covering frenzies so I just add to losing positions. No risk whatsoever because - as you outlined - there is NO WAY WHATSOEVER (not even a slight chance)...

Just a little reminded of what happened last time when taxidrivers and housewifes thought its a good idea to take out loans on their homes in order to buy precious metals so they won't be killed in the rampant inflation of 1979-1981:

Eurodollar is an interest rate/bond instrument, EUROFx is a currency (exchange rate) instrument.

I'd thank Greenspan, not Bernanke. Having the luxury of hindsight, we can say Greenie kept interest rates too low for way too long.

Question: In a Bloomberg article from June 2007 Simons was quoted "'trend-following is not such a good model. It's simply eroded.' Why/How did they launch a futures fund (which I presume is a long-term trend follower in liquid futures since they say it's designed to run up to $50bln) in October...

Trade the futures directly, they are more liquid and the spreads are smaller. Use the future options to hedge overnight risk if you take leveraged positions (pointvalue x futureprice x #ofcontracts > account liquidation value) overnight.

For a value investor, maybe. For a trader, no. Traders don't buy broken charts.

Numbers show high level of inflation = They're real, Numbers show lower level of inflation = They're manipulated :p

My margin/equity ratio is usually 15-17%.

Volume is average so far for the day. What makes you think more institutions than usual are coming in as sellers today? Thx.

Trader5287, I would say that depends on how liquid the holdings of a fund are. Running $5bln in illiquid small/micro cap equities is a lot different than trading the highly liquid currency and interest rate/bond futures which are very liquid ($5bln is a drop of water on a hot stone in those...

Food e.g. is "only" weighted at 15% of consumer expenses in the CPI. Transportation 17.5%. Housing is 42%. Rising oil prices and agri commodity costs are (so far) partly offset by lower housing costs. http://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpiri2007.pdf

Couldn't be that futures just gap up on random supply/demand shift, i.e. short-term trading noise. Always need a 'reason' don't we?