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Let's say 90% of all options expire worthless. Who guarantees that in a given month the settlement price of the remaining 10% of the contracts that expire in the money don't more than make up for the premium that changed hands for all contracts? It's a game of expectancy, not probability...

The opposite is true. http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1104850 Why Do Short Interest Levels Predict Stock Returns? "High levels of short interest predict negative abnormal returns [...] Therefore, our evidence suggests that short sellers act as specialized monitors who...

Is it possible to profit? Yes. Careful: Market neutral does NOT mean it's risk free.

According to your excellent argumentation we're in a static economy where supply and demand (for transportation, labor, economic raw materials, housing etc.) play no role whatsoever and the ONLY variable that has an effect on the dynamic of economic growth is the price of crude oil alone, the...

I pay ~$135 to fill up my tank here in Europe. People are whining (like always) but I haven't seen lines in front of the soup kitchens just yet.

Who says the US can't adjust? If gasoline goes to $15 a gallon who says people can't move closer to their jobs instead of traveling two hours in the car twice a day? What ever happened to efficient allocation and an economic equilibrium? I guess basic economic theory won't apply with crude...

I find it funny the 'magic threshold' that will result in the 'complete implosion of consumer spending' is always pushed a little farther by the bears over the years. Two years ago it was $70, then $90, then $120. And now $150. Basically, it's always current the current spot price +$20 that...

Gas has been $9 in Europe for a while. Not sure why Americans would be scared of a $5 handle.

MASTERCARD INC 305.32 Up 18.43 +6.42% new 52w highs Never short strong charts.

You mean CSI? http://www.csidata.com/

That's exactly right. ET money is the smart money.

Oh right, the 'real' inflation rate. My bad. 'Actual' inflation is closer to 10% a month. How could I forget. I wonder why all the trillions of dollars in institutional money is following CPI at all? Why aren't they as street smart as ET traders?

It doesn't matter what I think. All that matters to me is that the market (10y TIPS vs. 10y treasury spread) prices in annual inflation expectations of 2.5% annualized over the next 10 years. I'll start worrying about inflation when the market does, not when retail investors and financial...

Too bad we have to trade actual real stock prices rather than fantasy prices that would make more sense to the way our human mind is wired.

You have to realize that only the "Elite" traders here on the board know the truth of manipulated CPI and GDP. The rest of the investment world are the sheep blindly buying into the government lies.

$9 a gallon (thanks to insane taxation) didn't kill Europe. $6 a gallon (thanks to $200 oil) won't kill America.

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/05/19/business/AS-FIN-Kazakhstan-Fuel-Ban.php ALMATY, Kazakhstan: Kazakhstan on Monday banned the export of all refined oil products, news agencies reported, as the energy-rich Central Asian nation grapples with soaring fuel costs. The announcement, made...

It's a good thing we can always emigrate to Venezuela or Cuba. No Wall Street, no capitalism, free health care and schools for everyone!

We couldn't handle $60, we couldn't handle $90 we sure as hell can't handle $120 and we will all goto hell at $150. The sky is falling.

Maybe a better comparison to the current situation is 1990/1991. While markets are never the same who knows maybe it will end up being somewhat of a blueprint. 1990 saw a sharp 19% correction in the SP500 in the midst of what ended up being a widespread, worldwide housing crisis. Hundreds of...