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NQ breaking out. Let's see if it can drag slow motion ES to 4160. :) I think I saw a few FED speakers today as well.

Opening pretty much at last week's Close / Mid Point. Balanced market. I'm still leaning long, but I may easily be wrong. I'm still thinking a 4160 print if we go higher from here. Just not sure if one can expect anything more in current conditions. To the downside I'm thinking dip buyers...

Spikey! May have to start considering the short side if this dip isn't bought. I went long for the 3rd time pre-market post-release. Prior trades were scratches and a small loss. EDIT: And stopped out for the third time. Looks like that gap up ain't happening today. Waiting for the RTH Open...

Weak dip into the 50 % overnight level / VWAP. Weak bounce. The market does appear to want to go higher, but got stuck here below yesterday's close. Might be stuck here going into that report at 08:30 (which was a snoozer last month).

Respectfully, I disagree. 2 weeks is a way too small sample size to infer anything even for a short term trader. I should know, as I've had extended periods in the past where I've done very well only to run into trouble (drawdown) in the coming weeks for various reasons. So far for May I'm...

Just stopped out on a trailing stop at 44. Looking to re-enter if this bottoms out. I'm not very bullish or anything to that effect. Just trying to exploit the technical bias for a gap up open. Some news coming out pre-market which could change that of course.

Yes. Stalled at yesterday's Close / 4150 for now. That 4150 level is proving hard to push through. We don't seem to be able to push much above that. Let's pray it's just a temporary pause and not a reversal. I'll hold for now with a few ticks locked in and re-consider if we get a new push...

That's where my model is fuzzy - as it suggests a gap up could either continue or get sold for a move back in range. I had some confidence buying this dip due to the very high probability of a gap up open, but I may be happy to take it off for 20 points, although 4180 would be preferrable. :)...

At least that's what my predictive model suggests, i.e., we'll open gap up today. May not get continuation on the Open, though. Range bound and mean reverting market these days.

This dip should be a good buy for a gap up open today (Tuesday).

I will generally take the day off if I'm up substantially and/or the day already made a major move, but I will usually not if I'm up just a few points. This is also because I'm trying to limit my trading hours. If I'm red, I'll keep going as long as I believe the day have enough profit...

No, I don’t know if this is only a brief drop in volatility or if we will enter a sustained low volatility period over a longer period with the occasional spike. The latter would surprise me during these times, but I don’t know. That’s why I’m opening up this thread for discussion. What I do...

Curious. What in my post suggests that I don’t understand that volatility is cyclical? I’m well aware that we have had heightened volatility over the last two or three years and have had longer periods of way lower volatility than we saw so far this week. My post ended with a question in case...

As predicted. ;) There are some odds that are remarkably high and consistently so in the market.

The odds of closing above 40 is about 80 % for this type of day. But is there enough strength to push this to 4150 or 60? Doesn't seem like it, so most likely churn around the highs here into the Close. Firming up a bit here now, so let's see what's on the table...

Interesting comment. I saw a similar comment suggesting 0DTE may indeed have changed the VIX of old. The mechanics of the options market and the impact on index futures and the stock market is something I don't know too much about, beyond being aware of options expiration dates (which again...

You ever actually traded it? Swing? Day trade? The problem with Bitcoin is that you can trade it 24/7. I really like to have the weekends off, so I actually appreciate two days of closed markets... :)

Close above 4140 if we don't make a new LOD. ;) If we make a new HOD - less certain...

Yes. The general problem in low volatility markets is that it can be very hard to recover from losses. With the volatility we've had over the last two years it's no problem to take a few losses in a row and you'll easily recover on your next winner or two. You ever tested your algorithm on...

Going to be greedy on that one? I can see a weak dip to 4133 before moving to 4150, but I'm far from certain today. Maybe the dip already completed. Rolling over for a new LOD appears less likely to happen.