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You haven't provided enough information on the trade.

I think you should complain to Uncle Ben and Uncle Wen ASAP.

Ha-ha, bone, you still think Eurex is better behaved after Friday's fun 'n games in the Schatz?

If I knew a 100% right answer to your question, I'd be sipping pina coladas on my yacht in the Caribbean, surrounded by a bevy of scantily-clad nubile beauties. Generally, many things can affect UST prices and much depends on the sort of horizon you're looking at. However, one thing is...

Don't be silly... The answer to problems that you're attempting to describe is a no-brainer. It's called diversification.

2s5s10s (or 7s) is bowing out like mad everywhere... You should have seen bobl today. At any rate, not 100% sure, but there's been a lot of profit-taking on steepeners, so that might be the reason for some of the underperformance.

Hahahaha, now you're getting cold feet... As to Greek paper, I am sure I can source some for you.

Partly it's based on this story: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-01/japanese-sold-net-606-7-billion-yen-overseas-debt-last-week.html If you go to the Japanese MOF site (here: http://www.mof.go.jp/shoutou/week1047.htm), you'll see that they turned sellers in the second week of Nov and...

Yeah, I like Scott Sumner, even though I occasionally disagree with him.

Well, we know that State Street sold a lot of MBS, but it's still a bit confusing, given they're supposed to be re-investing the proceeds into USTs. The other culprit is, apparently, the Japanese MOF that's been selling non-stop...

Maybe it's because of this? Maybe they think the govt lets them keep their 40mil :). http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/dec/08/allied-irish-banks-pay-bonuses-despite-bailout

I am not an economics PhD, for the record. When you say "short-term", what precisely do you mean? How short?

That's really weird... According to everything I am looking at, today's lowest print was 99.6825.

Huh? I see Dec10 Eurodollars up 0.25 on the day at 99.685/6875. In general, it's hard to imagine the front contract moving 10 ticks in the last week of its life, without something pretty horrible happening.

1 full point in 10y is (very roughly) arnd 14bps. 1 full point in the ultra-long is (very roughly) arnd 5bps The formula to use is simple. Fwd price of the CTD = Futures Price * Conversion Factor. Once you have the fwd price, you can calculate the yield easily (e.g. using the YIELD...

Which bond futures? And, yes, you can do it yourself, in Excel, for example.

Sure... I realized this and edited my previous post. TBH, I don't see why it couldn't be 5%, but, in the same vein, I don't think it will move the Chinese to do anything. The whole reval malarkey is all smoke 'n mirrors, IMHO.

If it's Chinese CPI, I thought it was coming out later this week, rather than tomorrow. Also, BBG consensus is 4.7% YoY. I haven't heard of any Chinese selling, but the rumors of the other usual suspects being active abound.

It ain't about the US debt... It's a good ol' bond bloodbath.

1). Yeah, but if we take the 1970s data, I would suggest that your interpretation of it is excessively simplistic. Specifically, commodity price rises mattered in the 70s because they fed into wages. If there's no such passthrough inflation might not happen this time arnd. I am not...