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IT'S NOT TRUE! I'm starting to wonder that the reason I have a (2008) Lambo in my garage might have less to do with my trading prowess and more to do who I am trading against lol. How can you guys not see the glaring absurdity in the claim this video makes???????

It's an election year...nothing but sunshine. :)

I rarely trade companies at least not at this price as it would consume too much capital, and I don't buy options as they are probably priced just right so all of them expire worthless (maximum pain)...especially over earnings. BUT if I was interested in either I would be legging in more...

Chart?

Well you can extrapolate using various methods to ascertain whether this ER needs to be a miss or not. I see the price completing the C&H so at some point they are going to need a catalyst. :)

Philosophy and psychology will take you a lot farther in trading than any math. :)

Yes. Bitcoin was already showing that it could reach a low of 14k-18k 6 months before the ftx scandal broke to subsequently drop to those levels. It wasn't a matter of IF it would reach those levels, just a matter of WHAT would be the catalyst.

Price is determined to complete the pattern. It doesn't matter what the results of the ER is...its the accumulation phase. You guys need to expand your knowledge and not focus on day trading or trying to cash in on high IV...it will all even out in the end. Find the determinism of the market...

I just posted my projections. ???

Nothing. Nada. The stock price is completely determined to run in cycles and the news, earnings, government regulations will all facilitate that determinism. These cycles are baked into the chart.

Awesome! Ok I have not been charting any of these so let's start with home depot. Note: I am posting my projections as a C&H for simplicity for you guys. :) I'm long all day here regardless of the results of the ER. The C&H based on a measured move should bring it to $480-$500 or so...I...

Are we talking actual price or probability of price? It is easy to project the actual price 6 months from now using TA. I knew last summer that in January bitcoin would rally to ath's. I bought Jan19 16 BITO calls. No quant is going to find that trade.

He gets it! One could project the price of a stock 6 months from now using Fibonacci retracements, or you can use one standard deviation and project how much it can move in either direction in a certain amount of time . The probability of a price being reached and by what time frame cannot be...

https://www.imaginationstationtoledo.org/about/blog/the-fibonacci-sequence#:~:text=The%20Fibonacci%20sequence%20is%20the,233%2C%20377%2C%20610%2C%20%E2%80%A6

Wth have you never heard of standard deviation?

No man, you're the one who's saying that lol.

Okay, so by your logic as soon as you're approaching. All-time highs option prices with strike prices above the all-time high would be worthless because you can't protect beyond the highest price in the data sample? We are comparing apples and oranges here...you're talking math probabilities...

What are you talking about? The probability of future movement of price is based on the actual movement of previous price under the same circumstances. Thus price IS probability. It's like quant strategy 101. I don't even use Quant strategy because it's recursive and restrictive and basically...

Price IS the probability...when are you going to be able to wrap your head around this?

Yeah so what happens when you get a 10% drawdown overnight? How is your stop loss going to handle that in the morning? If you're not day trading then stop losses are absolutely useless anyway... The study shows they're not that much better even when they are working.