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I created (calculated) all the common indicators in Excel in order to gain a better understanding of them. In essence - an indicator is merely math applied to historical prices and the indicator on your screens is the visualization of that math. Just like a price chart is a visualization of the...

Was luck ever a factor in making these discoveries? Or was it a result of persistent and focused problem-solving? The reason I'm asking is because what you describe is seemingly very complex and makes you wonder if arriving at the correct solution was simply a matter of elimination and manual...

MachineLearning/datamining for non-programmers?

We now have three successive weeks making ATHs and each closing at top of the range. One of the last (but not the last) few times that happened - this happened next. I wonder what thoughts and emotions were flooding the market participants minds at that Friday's Close? :confused: Weekly bars:

No. Not anyone I personally know. Just long term holders of stocks with no/low leverage. Equally, if you trade only 1 MES, a 200 point drawdown ain't more than a thousand bucks. That's only 10 % down on a 10K account. There's another member here who've also held micro positions through deep...

Depends on leverage being used, IMO. I know plenty of buy and hold people who sat through the covid drop last March.

I'm considering dropping off some data for my intraday data for my historical database. Currently using the last 7 years, but I think the last 3 years should be sufficient for my purposes which is what I've been weighting anyway. For longer term analysis, I like using as much as available, but...

Was the economy strong and booming pre-covid in early 2020? Early 2020 => S&P approx. 3400 points. Q2 2021 => S&P 4115 points. That's a difference of 715 points / 21 %. If we're in the early phase of a huge recovery - why did we already surpass pre-covid levels by 21 %? Note: I'm not...

Buy the f''king dip have worked remarkably well over the last 10 years, although some of those dips have been considerable. So, make sure to have deep pockets. :)

I imagine you must been equally confident prior to your 200 + point drawdown the last time you bought the high. :) I do agree with the strong upside bias, though. If you were to trade only one direction in US stock indexes, up it is. But it won't be entirely risk-free - at least if you're...

To expand on the post above and with regards to some comments about how there's only crumbs left for day traders in the RTH session: The sum of the RTH ranges so far in 2021 is 3072,50 points. That's considerably more points on the table than both the Midnight Rally and Buy & Hold.

Again, let's look at the actual numbers and not just some fantasy numbers pulled out of thin air. I use the cash close at 4:00 PM as my closing value and 09:30 AM as my opening value. 1. For 2021, the actual percentage of gaps up is 57 %. The average gap is + 3,25, so there is a positive skew...

Why would we top out? We did have a few months of sideways already, but broke out higher, so... I have zero skill in long term predictions, so anything beyond the week ahead is mostly a hobby. I think I've said before that the my impression is that the markets really shouldn't be trading at...

The last two minor corrections on the daily following a new market high lasted 6 and 12 trading days, so that's about what I had in mind. It is of course possible that this bull keeps grinding higher still, but even a bull market retraces at some point.

ES trading like it's 2013 again. IMO, we're closing in on a short term market top here. + 250 now without much of a retrace.

By your own admission you seem to have a history of going long near market highs. Even though the market seems to have more upside potential still on this current leg up, the R/R on a swing long does not seem very attractive from here.

No. For the week ahead I have strong probabilities of new highs tomorrow and a small chance we'll continue with successive highs come Friday. I have about a 1 in 5 chance we'll roll over tomorrow, so always good to be cautious, but taking out the current week lows is not likely. That doesn't...

Check out Schwager's latest book or Google around. There was I believe at least one trader there who used a sophisticated news release algorithm. It's possible it was pre-programmed for various scenarios planned in advance, so maybe not exactly what you had in mind. He did spend a few years and...

The markets are usually strongest near a market top and weakest near a market bottom. Not a call; just something to keep in mind. :)

Yes. There is.