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When? I can easily see that next week as the range bound market continues, but not my main scenario for this week. Now, watch us have a huge day up today. LOL.

The best outcome for the short side today would be if we open below yesterday's low (4105) and are unable to get back inside yesterday's range on the RTH Open.

Another B/E stop out at 13.25. Got back in 09.25 and may stop out B/E on that one as well. Ultimately, I think we'll see lower numbers this week, but it can go higher first.

Or maybe the market will surprise us once more and reverse higher. Probabilities and common sense says lower, though. But there's no knowing for sure how high we can go first. I'm selling here, though. Will take a few stabs with tight stops in case I'm early. 4115. Already had one short entry...

Progressing well as per the template outlined above. Every FOMC day that closed down recently closed down the next day as well. There may be rips and rallies, but I think the momentum down is too strong by now to save this weak (pun intended).

No use making any predictions going into FOMC, but this type of weekly structure with an initial FBO on Monday and continuation lower on Tuesday often takes out the prior week low by end of the week. So, technically, it's not very bullish at the moment from my POV, so I wouldn't be surprised...

Out of curiosity I checked my DB to see how often we've had a day drop as much as today and recover with a positive close. I only count 4 prior occurences over the last 7 years. The most recent being more than two years ago in 2021. Usually, these type of days get stuck in the lower end of...

The market's punishing you for straying from the long side... :)

Reversed off 41 pretty much to the tick. Okay. 1 tick shy. Clearly, the market isn't random, yes? :) I got greedy as I often do and trailed a tight stop instead of exiting on the limit I had placed in advance. If today's business as usual, we'll most likely grind below 4140 for the remainder...

Impressive move of the lows. I knew 41 was a likely target, but didn't expect it to go in a straight line. This is clean buying with no selling. Makes you wonder if we'll actually keep ripping.

~ 4141 with a small stop could be a nice short worth 10 points or more. I'm not taking it, though. Going to exit a long position at 38 if I get it and call it a day. As soon as 41 is tagged and if we reverse off that level - the rest of the day is more uncertain. Most likely range bound below...

Was there any headlines to explain today's fall? I was thinking we'd see some risk off going into FOMC, so maybe a pullback to 4150/4130, but the market literally dropped this morning. Didn't you mention something about taking profits if we broke above 4200 and failed? Or was that SPX perhaps?

That would be very impressive. Very unlikely, but sure, similar things have happened in the past. I've seen stranger things. These type of day's usually retrace the 50 % level after the initial trend down is broken, so 4141 now. If we start ripping above there, well, who knows.

What the hell? You short...? :)

Flagging. If we breakout higher above 23 I'll be targeting a move towards 4135 / 45. I wouldn't expect we go much higher than that today?

So much for last week's rally. I did not call this drop, but at least I didn't do something stupid like going long with a huge stop. :) Might be a good thing I'm not around to trade yet as I may have tried picking a bottom too soon. Trading wise, this should be excellent, though. Plenty of...

Nice drop. I hope it continues until I'm back at my trading computer. I mentioned 4150/30 as potential support on Sunday, so let's see if those levels are worth something if we get there.

The down trend ended a while back, IMO, and we've been range bound for a multi-month period. I would guess that continues for a while longer.

Those who have Fibonacci numbers on their charts usually have so many levels plotted it's bound to bounce or reject one just by chance.

Oh, for sure. 5 % may be a stretch, but this can really rip on Wednesday with continuation towards week end. Could even rip on a 0.25 raise. I think the last few FOMC days have sold off, though.