i don't agree..150k-175k number will probably crash the market back below 1900. Initial response might be a pop though, good to sell into!
Today's initial response to the worse than expected claims number was positive, but market ends up erasing the gains at the end.
trading kelly fraction is optimal, the problem is that the swings can be huge and if they make you lose your nerve, then it is pointless. Better to trade a smaller fraction i.e max 'bliss' and be able to stick to the 'system'.
Peter Schiff is bang on with regard to the real economy. Unfortunately, the real economy has little to do with the markets. Peter is a great fundamentalist, but needs to work on his technical analysis for timing.
Druckenmiller: 30%+ pa, 30 years, no losing years
Soros: something similar or perhaps better, but some losing years
Buffett: great trader
Peter Brandt: 40%+ pa over twenty years