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  1. T

    Ag trade ideas

    I know this is an ag thread, but I am flummoxed as to why crude oil is down so hard today and the S&P 500 is hanging in there fairly well. There was an article in the WSJ a couple of days ago pointing out the correlation between those two were the highest they had been in 26 years. Maybe it is...
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    Ag trade ideas

    Morning update from one news service we get: The commitment of traders report showed managed money through Tuesday's trade +71k corn (net short -87.1k), +19.7k wheat (net short -50.6k), -4.6k beans (net short -30.4k), +8.9k meal (net short -38.3k), and +9k oil (net long 48.5k). While they...
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    Ag trade ideas

    Sorry to hear that Trad. Hope today is going better. First notice of bean cancellation from China this morning.
  4. T

    Ag trade ideas

    Lots of bull spreading in live cattle over the past couple of days. I'm looking at LEG16:M16 and LEJ16:M16. Time to get short those spreads?
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    Ag trade ideas

    Interesting chart. Do you know what the margin on that spread is?
  6. T

    Ag trade ideas

    Not much bullish follow through on the grains after the report yesterday. Pretty quiet ag markets right now.
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    Ag trade ideas

    I'm sorry, I meant people are NOT buying steak if their 401ks are dropping in value! And, we are limit down on feeders right now! Shoulda got way short.
  8. T

    Ag trade ideas

    I think cattle are hanging in there amazingly well despite the volatility in the stock market. I don't care how cold it gets, people are buying steak if their 401ks and IRAs are dropping in value significantly.
  9. T

    Ag trade ideas

    Some pretty interesting action on these soybean spreads today. Funds are heavily short w/ a big USDA report on Tuesday. Looks like they are covering some of those positions.
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    Ag trade ideas

    Is this an index rebalancing? I have not heard about this.
  11. T

    Ag trade ideas

    Looks good Trad. Hopefully 2016 is profitable as well for all here!
  12. T

    Ag trade ideas

    For what it's worth, did some analysis of the LEJ:M spread in R, appears to be mathematically mean reverting.
  13. T

    Ag trade ideas

    What do you think of that LEJ - M spread right now at $10.3? Understanding that April is generally the most expensive, that chart looks to me it wants to retrace back down to around $8.
  14. T

    Ag trade ideas

    Anyone watching this Jan - March Feeder Cattle spread? It has exploded over the past couple of trading days. I assume there is some seasonality, but $4.45 seems high for a contract that is two months apart.
  15. T

    Ag trade ideas

    Cattle have been quiet the past couple of days. Not sure if the rally is over or not yet. Weather has moved out of the plains for now.
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    Ag trade ideas

    Man, cattle. What the heck. I've given up trying to advise cattle producers. I don't even understand this market.
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    Selling naked puts option strategy

    Hey windwine, I haven't been doing a lot of backtesting in R. It's still pretty confusing for me. I tend to use R for looking at the distributions of returns for individual securities or spread trades. Also, for analyzing option information as well. I am still definitely learning how to use R...
  18. T

    Ag trade ideas

    Beans going again, bull spreading today.
  19. T

    Ag trade ideas

    Nice bounce on the beans this morning. Coming off support around 860 or so on ZSH.
  20. T

    Ag trade ideas

    No idea how this is going to play out. Gold and silver are popping a lot this morning. Not sure how much volatility there will be in the ags today.
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