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That's a bazillion dollar question. Pls let me know if you find a definitive answer.

Huh? Surely, having seen my posts, you would have to conclude that I have quite a bit to contribute. What's more, I actually take the time to do it. Whether you disagree with the views expressed in my posts is another matter altogether. Would you like me to specifically address the...

Sure... I think we've had a few discussions of these subjects with various people in the past. I would be happy to watch the video and tell you what I think of it.

The part of the statement that says this: "Fed ... lends it [money] out to make a profit on the interest. The Fed wants governments, corporations and individuals to be in debt to maximize the Fed's interest income." That's bullsh1t.

This is completely incorrect... If the rest of the book is like this (and I suspect it is), it's a load of bullsh1t.

Also happens to be wrong...

Actually, the account above is not quite correct, not from what I recall... The problems in the money mkts started when a couple of BNP money mkt funds that were invested in all sorts of toxic sh1te suspended redemptions. That happened on the 9th of August 2007. On the 13-15th of August the...

Hmmmm, signal analysis has been consistently getting me pretty far, but then again maybe it's the mean-reverting nature of interest rates.

Firstly, there isn't a CB out there that buys its govt's bonds in the primary mkt. Secondly, the BoJ has been buying JGBs (and other stuff) for 10yrs now, on and off. Thirdly, everyone knows that QE isn't the answer, not in the long term. The only solution is structural reforms that may fix...

Sure, no probs, j-t... I don't disagree with you in terms of what you propose as the central scenario. However, I wanted to make sure you were aware of the downside, as well as the upside. BTW, you're absolutely right in that there are actually 30y confs. In fact, there's even a 40y.

Sure, I would guess that for small size (normally, I think in terms of total notional, rather than number of bonds) liquidity is not that big of an issue. However, if I were you, I'd look at what a two-way mkt in Confs of various maturities is like. Just to make sure that you're aware of how...

How about a macroeconomics textbook (e.g. Mankiw or Dornbusch, Fischer et al)? Moreover, there's not that much math out there in the world of macroeconomists.

Firstly, what you were told about your bond holdings in a broker's account doesn't necessarily have to hold, as far as I am aware. All depends on the exact phrasing of your contract with the broker, as well as the agreement between the broker and the custodian (e.g. State Street or BONY)...

It's even better to be aware, innit? The SNB shocked everyone, esp given some people were expecting a hike.

One thing to be aware of is that the ZN CTD is, normally, a 7y maturity bond and ZB CTD is, normally, a 25y bond. Thus, using ZT-ZN-ZB, you'll be trading a 2s7s25s fly. Using the newer ultra-long contract will get you closer, i.e. allow you to construct a 2s7s30s fly.

+1

Any type of trading is retarded, if the trader doesn't know what they're doing. Clearly, you have no idea what actually moves the roll and you didn't listen to me at all when I tried to explain. Moreover, the fact that you refer to the roll as "arbitrage" is rather depressing and is yet...

Firstly, my young friend peil, pls do me the courtesy of spelling my name here correctly (that's at the very least; I am not even asking you to be able to write "jackass" correctly). Secondly, I know exactly what happened, 'cause I was there, right in the middle of it (as I have mentioned in...

Theta can only be your "edge" if you satisfy all the conditions below: A) you have diversified income streams B) you have reserves C) you don't mark-to-mkt D) you know the right price to sell options at In this case, your biz model is that of an insurance co, which mostly works.

Must be a joke, surely...