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A fly ain't gonna help you if all you get is a "hit"... The mkt won't give you money that easily.

This is just about as incorrect as could be.

Dammit, I just sold all the supplies of canned soup, guns, ammo and tinfoil hats I amassed last time I was told to head for the hills. Does this mean I have to start all over again?

OK.

Yes.

No

It's all about the carry... If carry materially changes, you'll see differences.

That's silly. But that's exactly the point... There's a lot of people out there who are making the sort of point he's making, without the sturm und drang, the intellectual superiority and with a lot more substance. Taleb, with his typically superior and yet shrill tone, drowns out people who...

I know you didn't mean zero. I didn't realize that your statement about Switzerland and Japan being the first to adopt near zero rates before 2008 applied to that far back in history. As to the Bank of England, had you, like them, known what lovely surprises Fred the Shred left on the RBS...

Hahaha, do you think I am new to the mkt? I know what happened with Swiss and Yen rates in history, thank you very much (in fact, I think we had a discussion some time ago here about negative LIBORs). However, I don't really see what direct relevance it has to the current situation. CHF...

I don't know... I am not here to judge you.

SNB are not gonna go before the ECB. That's just arab screwing with your head. The only thing they care about is EURCHF and it's nowhere near where it needs to be for them to be happy about it. I am also not sure of what you mean by them adopting zero rates before 2008.

Is this entirely accurate, Howard?

Well, prior voting patterns are exactly the point. If you look at them, you'll see what I mean. But you do need to go back to the old regime when rates actually used to move. In terms of RR, you're roughly correct. I am not saying it's a bad trade to sell the front contract outright, but I...

I am glad you liked it... I put it there especially for you.

No... The odds are low, given that it's not an inflation report month. It's unlikely they make a momentous decision about exiting an accomodative stance in a month like March. Hence the mkt pricing. To be sure, this isn't to say that it's definitely not going to happen, but going outright...

He was good until he sold his soul for publicity, IMHO. He has very little worthwhile to say now.

Maybe, heech, you referring to the fact that skew in the front month Brent and WTI is the "wrong way around" or smth? I guess normally it's the other way.

Huh?

It must be some high quality sh1t...