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LOL they know their math... basically he's saying the probability of making profits when buying is 20%, and the probability of making profits when selling is 80%.

So what book will make me fluent in this options speak?

Doesn't a bid above market price just turn into a market order?

Yes I also receive phantom responses.

So the expectancy in other words is the expected IV at a future price prior to expiry? So here are 10 AUG9 110 strike calls purchased @ 5.60. If price reaches 114 on Aug1, at the current IV of 60.39% the pnl is 842.43 or 6.44 per contract. 6.44-5.60=.84 However IV will increase the further...

I do not believe the monte carlo sim applies as the options pricing model is not an ergodic system.

Yes I am seeing that now with the pnl...into profits earlier with price at 114 on AUG 1 you pnl 124.43 whereas with the spread you are still at a -1.03 loss. :) btw the title was more of a knee jerk way to vent frustration when I failed to see a way to capitalize on a NVDA move. So tomorrow I...

No actually I took it twice! :) (I corrected it...yes they are symmetric...so which is better flys or spreads?)

I must have messed up. The NVDA returns @ expiry for the spread is 255 max profit while risking -245. The NVDA returns @ expiry for the fly are max profit 1445 peak, 945 while risking -1045. Fly is the best. :)

Ok the spread is out because you risk 375 for a max gain of 125 so 3:1 rw. Let me check the fly...

I've looked at fly's and basically a lotto ticket...sure you don't risk much but that shows on the pnl chart. I can't stand spreads of any kind...all they do is suck away profits. Over time I question whether the money you save on spreads will outperform the money you leave on the table.

drrr aug9 Hey D can I join your group yet?

Looking at 5 contracts of the Aug9 NVDA 112 call @ 4.75 for a total cost of 2375 If we have the following outcomes by AUG8 these are the results: 1SD move is 115.64 (@ 3.97) = pnl of -390 (risk reward = 6:-1) 2SD move is 119.03 (@ 7.08) = pnl of 1309 (risk reward = 2:1) 3SD move is 122.72 (@...

You'd have to be pretty stupid to think you are going to get away with boxing that large a position with that much attention.

Here is a list of all the countries in the world where bitcoin is legal. You guys need to buy a globe. :) As far as price maybe hitting 70k again and retracing back down to 40k's yeah tell us all something we haven't known...like since March. TA can pretty much telegraph what news can be...

That's not what the chart says at all lol if you knew how to read it...as mentioned in my post it all depends on (X) and if we simply do a single or continue on to a double correction. I'm not even following this right now so imagine what I could do if I gave it my full attention. :) I only...

So the US went from not even mentioning Bitcoin to attacking Bitcoin meanwhile, Bitcoin surges to $75,000 from $400 and suddenly the US decides to open ETFs to trade Bitcoin... Bitcoin doesn't care what the US does . It's the old if you can't beat them join them.

Yeah you guys say that everybody says that but nobody here can read charts lol. If you don't know the statistical chances of certain price levels, how the heck are you going to know what your expected value is???