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That's exactly what I was talking about. :)

I have always preferred holding overnight because it's when you get the big gaps and either make bank or wash out...but it's all pretty stupid having to write a paper on something that shouldn't even exist anymore ..markets should be 24/7 like crypto where your stop losses can actually work (as...

So is this basically how the delta will change with a put option as it drops every dollar with a starting delta of .41 and a gamma of .03? I just guestimated the gamma along the way...it seems to gradually drop from .03 to .01. So if you held stock at the strike price with .41 delta, then the...

Anyway BS is all skewed wrong imo...the trend weighted sigma is more likely the actual statistical range, which comes to a 1SD range for IWM DEC29 of: $198.39/$206.34

So all that to come to the same result as my spreadsheet, but without P/L ladder and color coded SD levels, or the cool P/L graph. :)

What the rule of 16? Already have it. if(A3=0,""

Yeah changed that...don't know why I keep typing 352...anyway if I messed up then so did tos and I think they know how to calculate SD. :) I have dabbled in php but not anything else. Are you api the data for the script or have to manually add it in? the DBL_EPSILON stuff means just to make it...

I just use stock price * volatility * square root of days to expiration/365 (or 252) and I get: $4.95 TOS has: $4.78 However if I take the actual data over the past 30 days and adjust the SD for the trend then I get: $5.70/$5.48 which are probably the more realistic targets imo. I...

It's price x IV / 352 SQRT DTE or something like that on Google sheets.

Oh I meant standard deviation not BS

Oh yeah, but it's not about predicting the future so much as putting the odds in your favour. Price is not just random..it follows patterns. Like with Bitcoin right now... statistically if price doesn't break through on this first ABC, then it will complete another ABC.

Old data is how you know what the new data is going to do statistically. All this nonsense talk about the past performance of price does not indicate future performance...the most successful fund did so purely on statistics...then entire industry of sports betting uses past data to set odds...in...

I could always pull data from the entire year to smooth it out and skip high volatility events or pull data from previous high volatility events...this is basically just to have my spreadsheet calc on average the stock moves x amount per day without having to look up IV or ATR or api. ATR only...

(459.63/489.53) are the 1 standard deviations for price by 12/29

"Sigma is a statistical measurement of variability, showing how much variation exists from a statistical average. Sigma measures how far an observed data deviates from the mean or average; investors use standard deviation to gauge expected volatility, which is known as historical volatility."...

Is this basically the equivalent of a 3 SD move? Black Scholes for SPY expiring Dec29 with 50% IV is: 459.63/489.53 Based on the last 30 days of closing prices the sigma comes to: 443.37/483.95

Yes that's my point. If you can't take on the shares then you are forced to take a realized loss.

No, my statement holds true.

I already came to the conclusion (a long time ago) that buying or selling options without holding or being able to hold the underlying is putting yourself at a huge disadvantage. Any strategy where you will be forced to realize losses is flawed. If they worked then everyone would have a (2008)...

It's basically a 25 wide put credit spread, turning into a Poor mans covered call. What's the point of buying the long put because the spread is so wide it's basically useless. Also the short put is well within range of getting tagged every week for a loss. Also, when switching to the PMCC...