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Stock Price: $200/assigned @ 199 Stock Price: 195/called away @ 196 Premium: $890 Stock loss: $-400 P/L: $490 Stock Price: $200/assigned @ 200 Stock Price: $195/called away @ 195 Premium: $1135 Stock loss: $-500 P/L: $635 It's better atm?

Multiple ID's is usually the kibosh for most forums...

Well I don't know the whole history...

I don't want either of you banned!

If stock price is 200 you sell a put @ 199. If stock price is 200 you sell a call at 201.

Sorry to drag you guys into the deep water here...:)

I had glanced at tos (beer) and read it as a total range not as 1 SD :) For 1SD (21 dte) price targets I get $6.88 down and $25.90 up with 242% IV. For your logorithmic method you are using the atm IV for contracts expiring today, or take the IV for the contracts 21 days out? The parameters...

Look at the P/L chart then look at the expected move in 21 days.

Whether their manipulations coincides with the chart or the chart coincides with their manipulations is a chicken or the egg question... The point being that the manipulation is baked in the chart so thus predictable.

There is absolutely nothing random about the market. Clearly it follows predictable patterns. That's how That's how you have trends. I (and others) were calling for Bitcoin hitting 40k by Jan since summer since it was at its lows of 16. And here we are .That's not random. Volatility doesn't...

This is a contradiction. If the market were completely random then what exactly are they pricing in?

After plugging in all the numbers for last year, it looks like running the wheel daily would have returned well for IWM with RWM as a hedge, if you ignored the break evens.

I've been setting it up various ways but the problem is the expected move 21 dte is about 9, so roughly high of 20 and low of 12...so you are smack in the middle of the loss zone. This is why I prefer to sell calls versus buy puts because they have priced in just right to f you up. It looks...

How are you managing the long puts when they lose value? I realize you are gong to buy more of them as they get cheaper, but at some point you either have to close them for a loss if otm, or roll them for a cost...not to mention the cost to buy them, so won't that take away from the premium you...

You can do it on a spreadsheet.

Okay, I'll look over this into a few beers right now.. it looks like you're doing what I'm doing except that I'm just taking the shares and accepting the lower premium for otm calls. Whereas you are going the route of doubling a tripling down on your protective puts

I ran it with TSLA and got great results as long as I got assigned, and sold shares at the assignment strike +1...thus eliminating realized losses. I manually added in the premium for the sold calls based on the current weeklys that are the equivalent otm. What's great is even the worst week...

oh so it does. I don't use it frequently. Still faced with all the same problems of not knowing future volatility or delta. You could use orats or market chameleon for delta.

CSP because I have to obtain shares at some point to start the wheel, might as well start off with collecting some premium...and since I will only be buying (selling puts) during a retrace I will get in at around the price I want based on TA. Yes I realize some people consider selling puts a...

Yes I know how a P/L chart works...but the one on options creator is calculating @ expiry or today...same as my spreadsheet. It can't tell you what the price will be at x price in x days. If you use a dynamic P/L like on option strat or tos, they have a static delta. The value of the option at...