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  1. Picaso

    ES Journal Archive (2011)

    Don't doubt yourself, LF, you've shown to have a good understanding of the market and never post BS. --- I'd say it wants higher
  2. Picaso

    ES Journal Archive (2011)

    and
  3. Picaso

    ES Journal Archive (2011)

    Exhibit A
  4. Picaso

    ES Journal Archive (2011)

    Hey Josh, this is a family site, keep the bj's out! :mad: ... :D :p --- Nice trade BigSnack! Edit: ROFL :D Reply of the month! --- LF, I see what you're saying and mostly agree.
  5. Picaso

    ES Journal Archive (2011)

    Easier to calculate (and thus program) yes; objective only up to a point... let me remind you of your previous and repeated discussions on RTH vs. ETH, 16:00 vs. 16:15, Fibonacci vs. Lucas, EMA vs. WMA, 5' vs. 133 ticks, etc. Not that I'm swearing by channels. Edit: Look at that! Who's the...
  6. Picaso

    Why can't you scale up and be a billionaire?

    There's another reason. When you start trading, billions, millions, etc. are just numbers. As you start to actually make some serious money, your motivation to make much more decreases exponentially, whereas your fear of losing what you already have increases. While new traders may...
  7. Picaso

    ES Journal Archive (2011)

    LF, yes, you're right, they express a totally subjective view, but... ... once drawn (the subjective part), then you have an objective line in the sand, a trigger if you will. :)
  8. Picaso

    ES Journal Archive (2011)

  9. Picaso

    ES Journal Archive (2011)

    Then I guess that's not the reason why you would scale out. Can't you simply backtest it? Edit: also, with mean-reverting strategies, adding as the position goes against you should improve the performance, whereas in a trend following system you would add as the position goes in your...
  10. Picaso

    ES Journal Archive (2011)

    It could be worse: she could have said that SHE is gonna need glasses :D :p
  11. Picaso

    ES Journal Archive (2011)

    You're missing the % probability of each leg of the trade and therefore the expectancy of the trade, both as a whole and as individual trades. Therefore you cannot compare it to, say AIAO at :2 or :3 If you use the same stop for all three contracts, your probabilities of being stopped out on...
  12. Picaso

    ES Journal Archive (2011)

    Hi LF, what gap fill?
  13. Picaso

    ES Journal Archive (2011)

    Morning everyone! DOM intermittently skewed to the upside up xdown volume (not yet significant) TICK positive Good luck/skill everyone
  14. Picaso

    2011: Rebuilding My Battered Account

    You're ok, Neke? (worried)
  15. Picaso

    ES Journal Archive (2011)

    What I do is I take out a percentage of my winnings (even if it is just $50) [Edit: and compound the rest to grow size] and never add money while on a losing streak. At some point I had to trade the British Pound because I had no more (trading - don't worry I was eating 3 meals a day) capital in...
  16. Picaso

    ES Journal Archive (2011)

    (I don't trade lots of 20s) Fix your size at 3 cars. Determine a % increase in your equity that will trigger adding 1 car. When you reach it trade with 4. If you go below x equity, you reduce one car. If you go above y, you add one car. Rinse. Repeat. Going from 1 to 2 and from 2...
  17. Picaso

    ES Journal Archive (2011)

    Stay away from her... I mean it... :D :p
  18. Picaso

    ES Journal Archive (2011)

    (One of) The troll is macho grande. Please stop feeding him.
  19. Picaso

    ES Journal Archive (2011)

    Yet DOM flipped over badly 9 to 6 and TICK <-900 Gift or flip?
  20. Picaso

    ES Journal Archive (2011)

    Not enough yet, but getting there. Also TICK compressing and trending higher NOW 6-9 --- Get in line, mofos, I saw her first! :D :p (No wonder sometimes people say we must be teenagers sim-trading from our mum's basement :p )
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