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S2007S, are you in any trades that correspond with your scenario of the credit card loans being the 'next shoe to drop'? E.g. you could short (or put puts on) AXP and COF, I believe both have lots of retail credit card loan exposure.

I read references to 2000/2001 a lot recently. "This market feels like 2000". What about 1982? 1990? 1995? 1998? I wasn't trading at that time, but I look at historical charts a lot. Who are we to say this has to play out like post 2000 did?

I wouldn't reach too much into short term price movement.

I recall ER2 is supposed to move to ICE by fall of 2008. The last contract IB shows is September 2008 though, no mention of e.g. a Dec 2008 contract at all. Now the CME replacement for the ER2 - the S&P Small Cap 600 - is trading on GLOBEX during RTH (IB symbol tree 'SMC') and while the...

His fund looks like it's doing well since 2005/2006 considering he's net short at all times (if he is, I am just assuming this). It could be a good means to lowering the overall volatility of a diversified portfolio for people that don't have access to short selling hedge funds. Just annoying...

Not at all! I am just pointing out that investors in these two markets seem (!) to use very different underlying economic scenarios.

Good luck with the trade. Hope it works out as planned.

You're an idiot. Where do I spread doom and gloom? I pointed out that a sector is showing bullish price action in the light of what the media portrays as an impending recession of "epic proportions".

"Soros: It's like the Great Depression" http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23515757-643,00.html "Are we facing another Great Depression?" http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/news/special-report/article.html?in_article_id=440411&in_page_id=108&position=moretopstories "One-in-four...

How is a 10y annualized real growth of 1.6% a correlation? It is an economic projection implied by supply/demand in the bond market. I am not here to argue that either cyclical equity or bond prices are "wrong". You're pissing up the wrong tree. My point is that the economic projections of...

What you said had nothing to do with the point that I made. If you have a point to make, make it. Don't waste my time.

Where do I say I think all is roses? All I said is I will never - regardless of how good/bad the news is - trade against the market. If we break through $SPX 1410/1420 in the monthly I am back being bullish and will increase long exposure in my directional trading while you will keep coming back...

Keep averaging into all those double short ETFs of yours. DUG EEV TWM and God knows what you're loading up on. It's great to short and pray isn't it? There's just no way the market can go up for a while from here now can it? Like in 1974, 1982, 1990, 1998, 2003. Nah, absolutely impossible.

Re-read what I wrote. Take a reading comprehension course if needed.

If the market were to move up higher from here, take a guess what catalyst it would be based on: MORE BUYERS THAN SELLERS. That's the only catalyst you need. All your BS "credit crisis of epic proportions", "oil at $120", "consumer is spent up" all means nothing when there are more buyers...

I was specifically speaking about cyclical stocks. There is not doubt financial stocks have been ripped to shreds. The bond market has and still does price in anemic real growth over the next 10 years (right now ~1.6% annualized). This doesn't fit with cyclical stocks hitting new highs like...

If the equity markets and the bond markets are telling different stories then one will likely end up having it wrong.

Yea, it's entirely impossible for a stock market to go up when actual earnings and earnings estimates come down. Never ever happened historically *cough*.

Wrong. The key to making money is to not lose money. Did you ever sell a stock?

I keep reading the world is seeing the world economic fallout since 1933 and we're all going to head to the soup kitchen soon. Yet steel stocks the mother of all cyclical industries are trucking higher to new highs: X Up $7.77 +5.30% STLD Up $2.55 +7.28% GNA Up $0.37 +2.41% AKS Up $3.37...