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You are talking about the GBPUSD but quoting as USDGBP

I have to say I find it highly amusing to see people on ET skeptical the SNB can hold the peg. Those are the same people who claim central banks are insane with their money printing efforts that don't end They essentially are betting the CBs will turn hawkish, which goes completly against...

I believe IB has it but futures have a fixed size which makes it pretty hard to properly size your position. I don't want to chase now too. Maybe if there is a correction

So far my biggest mistake this year has been not having followed through with buying german bunds. I had more confidence in that than shorting EUR but I didn't pull the trigger. The american ETF was quite illiquid and I pretty much never trade european markerts(only through US proxies) so my...

I don't think I even understand your example, if he bought GBP, 1.90 is supposed to be bad for him

I like your trade idea. Was thinking of making a small bet but the bid ask spread now for EUR CHF is rather big. I hope CHF rallies so I can put in on tomorrow

It seems that is way to early for the SNB to even consider giving up. There is no end to their capacity to sell francs

I shorted some more EUR against SEK and NOK but mainly to get back my exposure I had cut back against CHF and JPY. For some reason I just can't get high confidence on trade and take a pig sized(pun intended) position But I somehow feel the decline might be only beginning. It seems to me that is...

I'm fairly sure if they had to pick between price stability and FX rate they will pick price stability. But their inflation is too low to even bother(When it gets higher, the market might start to test the bank more seriously). Which goes to show how the BOJ is insane, they should have done...

I believe Rosenberg pointed that the recessions happen once on average every 5 years but during balance sheet recessions(or financial crisis, I don't recall) they happen every 2 years. So it isn't simply a theory but an historical fact

You are right we are not there yet. But it just goes to show how skeptical one should be about these forecasts. Last year at this time I was wondering what the hell people were thinking when they thought the economy would dodge a double dip, turns out QE2 saved their lousy forecasts but I'm not...

When economists think there is 30% chance of recession, there is a recession almost every time http://www.nytimes.com/2002/09/01/business/economic-view-forecast-too-sunny-try-the-anxious-index.html

But in a nutshell even the 'easy' Fed has allowed NGDP to run massively below trend, so they hardly have done a lot of boosting to ADemand. BOJ is even worse

I believe you read Scott Sumner blog, he addressed all these points in a way I very much agree with. I don't have time to rewrite all his arguments

The only red flag about the NOK is that it seems highly overvalued in a PPP basis. Both in the big mac index and the OECD PPP index(More even than the CHF) So there is a risk there. But I would imagine in a time like this where capital doesn't know where to go, PPP will matter less. Safety is...

Whats holding back the PIGS economy is the austerity which they would not have to be going through if they had their central banks to do large amounts of QE, even financing their goverments. Koo seems to imply that monetary policy is innefective in boosting aggregate demand(I believe he claims...

Econ data for Norway and the NOK http://www.tradingeconomics.com/norway/current-account twin surplus and low gov debt to GDP. I don't see any red flags so I'm going to diversify some of my assets into the NOK

I fail to see how a balance sheet recession would prevent any wiling central bank from implementing changes like the SNB did. Koo seems to be quite dumb for the amount of attention he gets

The SNB move goes to show how the Keynesians like Richard Koo and to some extend Krugman are totally wrong when they claim that monetary policy is impotent due balance sheet recessions/zero bounds, etc. Their rates are at 0%, yet they were able to decrease their FX rate by 8% in one day, which...

We need to coin a new term. Central bank insider trading