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I found the thread and study http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=220371&highlight=black+AND+swan http://www.cxoadvisory.com/1415/equity-options/is-40-per-month-shorting-index-puts-a-fair-return/ "For buyers of at-the-money puts to break even, October 1987-like crashes...

The reason I'm a bit skeptical of options is because they are nothing but a PRODUCT based off the underlying, usually with a middle man that wants to make money If they just lose money they would leave the business. Furthermore usually they hedge their exposure trading the underlying thus...

This I agree, IF you believe the tails are cheap then it makes sense to be exposed to them but what if you don't?Then levering the underlying is the way to go I'm not sure betting on tails is cheap right now

As far as the fakeout goes, yes you are exposed to that but my point was that there wasn't anything innate in options that are great, what if I charged 95% of your profits to protect you against a fakeout? Its all about the price you pay for that protection, not the fact that you are protected

I don't think options have anything special that is not available in the underlying. If you buy options or take a leveraged bet on the underlying you might have essentially the same trade with the exception that you are protected against/profit from tails in one and exposed in another. With the...

What kind of return on capital you gun for on a yearly basis through your options trading?

Freudian typo, Fed email version? "New York Fed purchases $8.870 billion in Treasury coupons" "CORRECTION: New York Fed sells $8.870 billion in Treasury coupons" :p

EWH. More than 50% of the stocks are financial/real estate related

He didn't say anything new. The trade is a good one but I don't see how its a favorite to work, the downturn is close both in China and HK, tightening policy now would be getting the worst of both words(the boom/bubble and a hardlanding). They will be forced to keep policy loose in the hopes...

There are political considerations in case they are found out/caught. Some people claim they already do this, M Whitney said that in 2009 the Fed did that in QE1 by buying MBSs, propping their price when the banks owned a lot of it. She called a backdoor capital injection or something like that

I believe there is something to this prediction http://www.themoneyillusion.com/?p=11257

I should add also that corporate profit growth tends to equal NGDP over the long-run. But in the 2008-2011 period there was a massive head fake. Even though NGDP slowed down(went negative for a period) then came back with sluggish growth, corporate profits collapsed first then staged a massive...

In my view it was a combination of sentiment being very oversold combined with government policies that prevented a collapse in NGDP

According to his numbers its his first year ever he has underperformed so much. In 2007 he lost 3.2% against a gain of 5.5% of S&P500, that was the 2nd worst

Looks like he is beating the market since inception. Also I like the way he thinks, he is far smarter then the Bill Millers of the world even if he makes some silly mistakes(as we all do)

To me a recession is almost a done deal, its a matter of how severe it will be and how the Fed will react to it(How large LSAPs will be) That is a lot of uncertainty on that, which makes it hard to have a precise forecast My bottom line here is to stay defensive and buy stuff that I think is...

Tilson on the buyback http://valueinvestingletter.com/berkshire-hathaways-new-share-repurchase-program-and-what-it-means.html I already got a bit less than 10% of my networth on BRKB I'm hoping it goes down so I can buy some more

Next year FOMC changes Out: Charles L. Evans, Chicago Richard W. Fisher, Dallas Narayana Kocherlakota, Minneapolis Charles I. Plosser, Philadelphia In: Jeffrey M. Lacker, Richmond Dennis P. Lockhart, Atlanta Sandra Pianalto, Cleveland John C. Williams, San Francisco Lockhart has...

USD

How 'constantly'?Are these options on Yen futures at the CME?