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The Saudis and OPEC have lost pricing power although the threat of OPEC production cuts still seems to worry the hedge fund boys for some reason. With supply and demand evenly matched, it's the marginal barrel that counts. And unfortunately OPEC (and others) have too many spare marginal...

Would have been even nicer if I hadn't taken my profits too soon. Ultimately the market over-reached (again) and took out even more than the storm premium put in. I reckon you should see a little strength from here on going into the report. But I'm sticking on the sidelines now until the picture...

Most the the talking heads are saying that demand is outstripping supply.... So Jim Rogers just joined the queue, albeit a little late. Hardly innovative thinking IMO. Shell and Chevron are just about to purchase huge (proven) oil shale reserves in the Rockies. AMEC is building the pipeline...

I'll typically let crude run up to $1.50 against me if I'm fairly certain that trend and momentum are in my favour. Also, I figured crude would sell off if the storm proved a non-event so I held out a little longer.... My timeframe is normally a week or so i.e. between DOE reports. Momentum...

Seriously, the physical guys are bearish right now.... It's the hedge funds who think like the crowd and who've pushed crude beyond "fair value"... Oil company CEO's want the price to come down and traders just want volatility, and to keep making money off the crack spread. Anyway, what do I...

In my experience, natgas is the 2nd most volatile market in the world. FFA's (freight forwards) are the most volatile (in recent times)... You gotta remember that some 70% of US natgas production originates from the Gulf and Henry Hub is in Louisiana (I think)... So any threat of a storm in...

Read my Ernesto thread. All the Ernesto storm premium factored in late Thursday evening. Now that it's looking like missing the Gulf entirely the sell-off in crude and natgas should continue.... And the beauty is crude's not oversold at all. Traders will probably be fishing for stops on the...

Yup, long term demand is starting to fall. Which is why the majors have quietly issued orders to get the price of crude down.... It doesn't really matter to them what the price of crude is, as long as the refining margin stays high. OK, it's my pet theory but it's based on chats with a few...

Looks like it might swing through Cuba and blow itself out... Holding thumbs we don't get it anywhere near the Gulf and that the $1 odd storm premium we saw on Friday evaporates on Monday's open.... :) Post Katrina last year we were just under $70 followed by a 50% retracement of the storm's...

The nice thing about going to an office is that you have a buffer (commuting) time before coming home and unloading the stresses of your day. If you're at home all day make sure you can find a place out of the way where you can't be interrupted and also try to find something that can act like...

The only potential hurricane we've seen so far and it's having a massive effect! Talk about an over-reaction. Ok, so I'm short Dec crude at 73.50. :) Thanks Ernesto, now go away.... Just as I morphed from a bull into a bear, then the hurricanes start arriving.....

Yeah but I think the worriers didn't do enough homework on the religious significance bit..... I can't imagine that any terrorist would have done anything today because it's the Islamic celebration of the "night flight" of the prophet Muhammad. Then again, I guess only a nutjob would confuse a...

All I know about said Mr. Rogers is that he packed 3 pairs of underwear and 2 bow-ties (amongst other things) to travel round the world. Now that's just not common-sense! :) As to the title of this thread, I seriously doubt we'll see $100 anytime soon. The producers know what their ceiling is...

Platts and Argus for physical fundamentals (for crude, natgas, coal, power, emissions and freight). However, the paper traders / funds are dwarfing the physical these days. So everything is in the price and often the fundamentals are totally wrong.

Got stopped out on my long natgas position but more than covering this on my short crude position. Think crude is due for a bit of strength shortly but long term I think we may have seen the major top for now... Problem is that natgas and crude both trading off the same fears (hurricane...

I agree with this. Crude has failed to push higher on some very bullish news lately. Physical traders seem to be mandated to get oil prices lower but there is a lot of fund buying / support around $73.80. However, don't agree with you on nat. gas. This market, although well supplied at the...

BP was able to cover by purchasing spot but I believe Conoco has declared FM for their supplies out of Prudhoe. I hardly think this will have any effect on crude prices.

Except this time it's the funds flattening out the curve. Metallgesellschaft really should have known better, especially as crude was more physically driven way back then.... Crude and other energy markets always seem to me to be in short term contango and long term backwardation. If the...

Not sure about your question.... In my experience crude moves faster than products so the crack spread is not really going to help you scalp crude...

They don't necessarily stop going up. Many oil companies will hedge against an index for their long term production and then structure a linked EFP / futures / swap type trade to profit from shorter term price moves e.g. trigger the EFP monthly to lock in as much upside as possible.