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Why would anyone be better off forgetting about their trading discipline? You're not making sense, especially not by posting Bloomberg headlines and using them to predict short-term market returns. Just go all in short and pray huh? Good luck.

I don't think there was every a prolonged period (>12 months) in the last 10 years where dedicated short sellers were able to beat flexible bias L/S funds.

Are you whiners going to start a new thread every uptick in CL??? Why not keep all this crying contained in one single thread?

In "The New Market Wizards", Schwager interviews a guy that talks about 1990/91. The particular trader - whose name eludes me - said how every day headlines got more gloomy and predicted the end of the world, but stock prices started churning sideways and refused to go down much more. He became...

Just like 1990. Things that make you go 'hmmmmmmmmm'.

From the future press release "..raising $2bln in new funds... in order to capitalize on mispricings and dislocations in the global fixed income markets... instruments trading below intrinsic value... unique opportunities of historic proportions" when it should read "we won't ever see the...

Have you looked at charts of the bond futures in the last 6 months?

Ask the Japanese how they feel about low inflation after the post 1990 debt fallout. Their central bank and policy makers were way too slow to react, causing a decade plus of deflation. In the process, they had to cut to 0% and their currency became toilet paper, too.

I wonder if Blackstone feels any better about their purchase now :p

Why don't you listen to the markets. 10y bonds - 10y TIPS forecast 10y avg. CPI of 2.44%. The market sees no inflation over the next 10 years. Until that changes, keep wearing your tinfoil hats.

I second that. Tinfoil hats, put your money where your mouth is instead of whining day and night about inflation and about the Fed "printing money 24/7". Inflation is out of control? Then go short 10y bonds, buy gold, buy wheat, buy oil futures. If you're right you will be rewarded...

I trade very long term systems, many of the commodities see only 2, 3 .. maybe 4 trades a quarter. In this timeframe I didn't find any edge of EMAs vs. SMAs during backtests. Of course, if you're trading intraday you may find bigger differences.

Hmm I don't live in Germany for 7 years now. Germany's unemployment rate fell to 8.1 percent in January, the lowest level in 15 years from what I read.

The US economy will avoid recession as the housing market begins to recover this spring, according to billionaire investor Sam Zell. Speaking on "Squawk Box" this morning, Zell attributed much of the current economic troubles to fear-mongering and politicking by Democratic presidential...

A piece of advice: don't try, ever. You wouldn't last a week.

Reg. the discussion of core vs. headline inflation as a basis for Fed policy: http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSN2524414220080226 "Federal Reserve Governor Frederic Mishkin on Monday defended the central bank’s emphasis on core inflation, saying an emphasis on less volatile prices...

What's the alternative though? Should the Fed run its policy according to how volatile energy and grain commodities trade? Hike 50 bps when oil is up $15 and cut 50 bps when oil is down $20? Doesn't make much sense to me.

ByLo he's been bearish on equities calling them "overvalued and ripe for a correction" since 1996: http://works.bepress.com/brad_delong/2/.Then in 2001-2002 he called a secular bear market...

Shiller is one. He is perpetually negative on equities as an investable asset class. Nothing will change his opinion. He is dogmatic and inflexible. Two attributes that are very unhelpful as an investor.

He's a perma bear. He's been bearish on stocks calling them a bubble since 1996/1997. He never became bullish over the last 12 years. Not sure what wisdom there is in being a broken clock prognosticator.