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Haha What a load of BS. And those 40,000 contracts get settled WHERE exactly? At $80? After all the speculators are out surely the price what collapse to the 'real' level? Good ole' Phil and his newsletter magically omit that unpleasant fact.

So what is it then. Commodity inflation or global recession? Hard to rationalize both simultaneously over an intermediate time-frame.

I'm in the sideways camp myself. If unemployment doesn't explode to the upside (Friday will be another good datapoint) and crude oil prices at least go sideways for a while I wouldn't rule out much higher equity prices by year end.

TED spread reaction of today pretty muted. Complacency? Or just a collective yawn from the bond markets?

So I should put my money into raw materials/commodities that the global manufacturing economy is using as we - as you say - have a big recession (or at least a major global economic slowdown/stagnation) ahead of us? Where's the logic in that? Oh wait, this is ET. I shouldn't ask for logic here.

1931 will look like a kindergarden birthday party compared to whats ahead isn't it? LMAO

So true. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1897079#post1897079

On the way up or on the way down? :p

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,356606,00.html SELMA, Ind. — It's just a drop in the global oil bucket, but an eastern Indiana man is operating an oil well in his backyard in an effort to capitalize on soaring crude prices. Greg Losh's rig produces three barrels of crude oil a day...

Unemployment is still very very low by historic standards and as long as that doesn't change the bear theory of the "weak consumer" that we've been hearing for years now will just not materialize.

It does matter if a large portion of the manager's net worth is tied up in the fund itself. I am sure most deep value guys place up to 80% of their own liquid assets in their own fund. Buffet, Einhorn, Lampert, Pabrai, Ackman, Loeb etc.

You imbecile. He has long and short positions in mid & big cap US equities, not exotic debt instruments.

Somehow he gathered $5bln in assets and had returns of +27% annualized over the last 10 years. How much do you manage and what are your returns? Case closed.

I had to look twice to see if I landed on the SIGM Yahoo message board when I read the above.

I am sure Soros finds a way to plug his new book in the interviews he gives after the hearing.

Ansbacher's fund produced (net of fees) over the period of 1996-April 2008 Annualized Return 11.78% Annualized StdDev 19.88% according to www.iasg.com That's a Sharpe < 0.5. Worth all the hassle and risk? You decide.

Sure, you will have 15 years in a row where you make 13% and one year where you're down 75%. Again, the risk adjusted returns are not better than going long SPY and simply holding for 16 years and reinvesting dividends.

Unfortunately we have to trade on bids and asks in the live market and not fantasy prices that make sense to our subjective perception of how things should be.

The point simply is that by simply using a random strategy such as selling an OTM put and an OTM call a couple strikes out (and thus selling short volatility) you don't have any edge that will enable you to outperform a simple long investment in the SP500 on a risk adjusted basis over the long...

Send S2007S a private message, he will let you in on his secrets how he made millions in that ETF alone!