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I agree with your argument even though there are a bunch of ifs in there that could change the equations again. I spent many years in a prior job forecasting markets (high tech not real estate) and there are about 5 classic mistakes in forecasting that seem to keep on repeating. Most people...

Touchy. But the warning bells for new economies and paradigm shifts are well worth listening for in case the logic is weak or the hidden assumptions don't hold up. An interesting one with QQBall's real estate tanking followed by reduced employment: in my area much of the employment is...

Divide the result (subtract commission and slippage please) by 3x the margin on a contract. If the result is attractive its worth giving it a go. You might want to look at intraday charts on a smaller timescale around the time of its entries and exits to see how realistic the assumptions are...

Any time I see a "new economy", "paradigm shift" or other reason why it should "be different this time" my alerts go off :)

Its pretty standard stuff ... you push enough sellers onto your buy orders and then, even if you get hit for a few it really doesn't matter. But pulling most of the orders as the announcement takes place isn't that diabolically difficult. Putting it kindly, this bracket either side for news...

It seems the link I gave above might not work because I picked it up after I had registered: If you'd like to have the highs and lows of each bar correct (suggestion 1035) or the backfill enhanced to include transaction number so that tick charts still work with backfill data (suggestion...

Van didn't draw that conclusion. It was raised on his forum a while back and his son explained the test they'd run which combined "not quite" random entries with a good trailing stop methodology on trendy markets. It would actually perform much worse now as the markets have been less...

ping

Yes, yes, yes !~!!!! Never, ever, ever change on the fly. Test off line. Forward test. Then live. The human brain is designed for eating nuts and chasing small mammals and birds ... its design will fool you into chasing illusions in the market unless you lock it down with solid logic...

I had hoped never to say this but why not try esignal?

One last request for IB (one I gave up on previously): The backfill still doesn't include transaction information so Tick Charts don't work. I just saw another newbie to IB's plaintive request for help ... IB, if you should chose to improve the data quality so that bar highs and lows re...

One last request for IB (one I gave up on previously): The backfill still doesn't include transaction information so Tick Charts don't work. I just saw another newbie to IB's plaintive request for help ... IB, if you should chose to improve the data quality so that bar highs and lows re...

One last point. Because of perceived problems with IB TWS and the data and backfill various charting and front end suppliers have been broadening the range of products they support. So now they promote other brokers who they perceive to be more supportive and, correctly or otherwise, free of...

Given that philosophically I am against tormenting those, who through no fault of their own are not 100% I should probably leave poor old cscott alone. Good suggestion, I'll give the old boy a free pass. But, much more seriously, if a bar is missing its highs and lows I don't believe that...

However I'd like to suggest that we all vote for IB to stop developing features like IB Charts and create a smaller TWS and get the f'ing data correct. "You're wasting time adding features when you should correct basics like tws size and data quality"

Note that as well as providing no discussion for the suggestions (which I think will be so numerous that they are hard to tell apart) there are the following immediately obvious issues: - 150 characters is far too few to describe a problem that needs fixing - you need to register to be able...

Well put Viper. A very smart predator.

Its a long time since I read Smith's book but I think it is in that area that I found it interesting ... not so much as a how to trade book. Chick's book isn't but is another good view on the trading world.

Books you might consider for a "view" of the activity are Chick Goslin "Trading Day by Day" and Gary Smith "How I trade for a living"

Someone mentioned a book in another thread: "The Path of Least Resistance" by Robert Fritz. Its not actually about psychology its more about "structures of behaviour" and argues that some of the times psych can't help people out of their holes (got a plan, tested it, still dont do it real...