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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    I have a dormant account at Marfin Laiki Bank that I haven't used in years. I never get any email from them, until this week 'AutoDeposits without the use of an envelope! Now you can easily and conveniently AutoDeposit cash and cheques without the use of an envelope, using our Bunch Note...
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    IB SMART routing and BATS rebates

    Are you sure?I usually pay 70c-80c per 100 shares. This morning I did a quick trade routing to BATS adding liquidity, paid 50c per 100 shares. Only 1 trade but I'm already pleased with the results
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    Rule of thumb for position sizing

    What about 1/20 of kelly?The reason I wouldn't use those rules is because they seem to not have come from a sound mathematical model founded on expectations. The ratio between the good trade PS and the less good trade PS was made up instead of being based on some kind of formula I haven't...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    There is a ton of people chasing those yields. In some stock newsletters I subscribe to these stocks are one of their favorites. The shock from people when they realize the dividend is not safe will be large, specially in the post mid-2013 phrase world I understand the carry part but honestly...
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    IB SMART routing and BATS rebates

    I'm using limit orders to exit some stocks. I noticed SMART sometimes fills me on NYSE and sometimes on BATS. BATS has the biggest rebate of all. Would be more prudent for me to specifically demand BATS routing and give up on SMART? As I understand Reg NMS prevents trading outside the best bid...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Whoever is still long these scam companies need to have their head examined. 'low for longer' is a total mainstream view(as opposed to a few years back where it was like Hatzius versus the world). Now with this refinance issue they might be even good shorts
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    I was looking at a cheap hedge against a liquidity problem that hurts stockholders(creditors will be saved though). At 70% vol its not cheap though But frankly I might just wait 6-12 months on this. If a recession happens and the EU continues to have problems I have a hard time seeing the...
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    Rule of thumb for position sizing

    http://epchan.com/downloads/How_much_leverage_should_you_use.pdf
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    Whats the beta of GM?

    For say, the last month?I can't find this anywhere
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    The biggest risk seems to be liquidity problem driving the company to some kind of gov bailout in the form of FDIC guarantee of assets. Stockholders might be hurt in that case I'm thinking of setting up as follows Long BAC+Short XLF+ Long $2.5 puts for Jan 2013.
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Floyd Norris is claiming the loans rate fluctuate according to the benchmark rate on NYT
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    But there is a risk the stress tests will force the company to raise equity at current prices. Although I'm not sure they will include litigation losses which is what matters
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    I'm finding tempting to go long BAC and short XLF as a pair trade(The short leg would be only open during the likely US recession and EU troubles, then it would be closed) Reasoning is as follows BAC is too big to fail, the main reason the stock is depressed is the litigation uncertainty(some...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    "The ECB will hold a second auction of unlimited three-year cash in February, allowing banks to pre-fund themselves for all of next year and beyond, say analysts. " http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-21/european-banks-devour-ecb-emergency-funds-amid-frozen-markets.html Makes me wonder...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    I really need to fund my intrade account soon. Markets there can be quite inefficient sometimes. As of yesterday the prob of France getting downgraded was at 75%(by Jun 30 2012), yet ZH showed some quotes from S&P sov director that makes me think the prob of a downgrade is large Seems almost a...
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    T-bonds at 0% why not just keep the money?

    If you have large amounts of money you are not insured by the FDIC. Buying UST bonds is a way to protect your money
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Seems to me an attempt to reverse the decline in M1 M2 and M3 that seems to have started in Oct https://stats.ecb.europa.eu/stats/download/bsi_tab02_03/bsi_tab02_03/bsi_tab02_03.pdf If the banks use the reserves to buy assets from non-banks it would boost those measures
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Have they exhausted their ability to drain reserves?
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    I found specially troubling Mario statements of 'we are not supposed to go against the spirit of the law'. You would think that if he didn't want go do something he would just say 'We did not discuss this option' but with that statement he is making even harder on himself to starting bailing...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    They should soon launch measures to drain liquidity(Maybe they have already, Martin?)I find it hard to believe that they would allow reserves in the system to go up by €500b or so QE + AntiQE = No QE From the way Mario speaks I find it hard to join the 'ECB will give in' camp anytime...
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