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    What is the fair value for the S&P500 today?

    Nevermind, the first site now changed to something more resonable
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    What is the fair value for the S&P500 today?

    This site says one thing http://www.programtrading.com/buysell.htm this site says something else http://indexarb.com/
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    To me there is a chance that he is just lying to get some of the voters pissed about inflation to vote for him. But the big thing is the closeness to the band, this is going to put them in a BOE type situation where keeping the band means creating economic outcomes they might not want to(More...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Back at 100% long on HKD(Thinking of buying more though) http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204603004577268753111588304.html I'm totally shocked he would say this, HKD immediately spiking. I'm shocked because he is doing that with the currency close to testing the band, this will...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Hilsenrath saying Fed is not signaling anything just showing its toolbox http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2012/03/07/video-jon-hilsenrath-on-bond-buying-program-under-consideration-at-fed/
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    I appreciate different views and feedback. Have no problem with people disagreeing with me. I do have problem with extremely negative people who offends others for no reason and have huge egos, the guy is clearly mentally ill. He is the type of guy who will go to Tahiti, love it for a couple...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    http://www.economonitor.com/nouriel/2012/03/07/greeces-private-creditors-are-the-lucky-ones/ Roubini seems correct here. Fiscal transfers in the form of official debt restructuring could be a potential solution for Greece so it stays in the EUR zone. I'm afraid the political issues of a large...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    I talked about and research this last year and posted here. My conclusion was that if Greece drops out of the EUR then Greek stocks are a great buy(Ala Argentina) the day after. But buying before such thing is risky because the loss of a return to the drachma will be really large and it will be...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Hussman last 5-6 letters explain the bear case quite well
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    I think thats right. They will argue that what matters is how many bps they take off the back end of the curve and how much that will raise GDP in some models. But to me expectations are more important than whatever small impact it will have on rates
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Pretty cool global campaign http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4MnpzG5Sqc The guy who made it is a terrific film marker. This seems to be going along with the idea that globalization is making tail events control a bigger share of the total and the world more unpredictable
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    JS Global Macro Notes

    darkhorse, when you say 'we' are you running some kind of investment firm? Thanks
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Fed might have to found a loophole here. They can do this OTwist 2 and then if the economy weakens, let the short-term deposits expire, expanding the balance sheet, effectively doing a delayed QE3 without much attention brought to it
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    Do you consider immoral to steal from extremely rich people?

    I'm talking about normal situations in everyday life. Rich guy drops a $100 bill, do you give back? That kind of thing
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    Do you consider immoral to steal from extremely rich people?

    Poll and I will follow up later
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Bought more TLT. Position is getting biggish. I will trim down though if they decline from here
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Bought some more TLT and short some EURs more
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    I stopped after Macro Man left. I already have a 61 links I read every morning(takes 2-3 hours). I got ruthless with some sites, either it offered a ton of value or I just cut it. I think there is too much comedy there so I cut
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Speaking of Daniel Kahneman He was on Charlie rose the other day http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/12185 I never read his work directly but was quite familiar with his findings through Nassim Taleb
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    I haven't put many macro trades or changed much lately(Though have been trading more actively with some short-term systems). My main positions at this point still remain the same Long BRKB(Largest, looking to add) Long HKD(cut 50% today) short EWH(Remain short and I'm expecting risk aversion...
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