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    How to determine if options are cheap or expensive using historical data

    etfs 1 week: use recent hv vs Iv stocks without earnings 1 week: see etfs Stocks with earning 1 week: only use your forecast Stocks without earnings 2 months: use iv vs recent hv compared to index same Stocks with earning 2 months: use stocks without earnings plus your earnings forecast. Use...
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    How to determine if options are cheap or expensive using historical data

    log returns are stdev(ln(stock1/stock2))*sqrt(252) on a daily scale the straight return is a decent approximation. You give very little information on what you are trying to trade so it's hard to say what will be reasonable for you. index/commodities, single stocks without earnings, single...
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    How to determine if options are cheap or expensive using historical data

    you can look at past IV’s (called the IV rank), you can look at current IV against recent HV, or you can look at current IV against current HV rank. if you are trading directionally your real risk is distributional and you might want to consider using an HV that’s not based on one day returns...
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    SPX vs SPXW options with same expiration

    How poor are you?
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    Thiel’s fund wound down 8-year bitcoin bet before market crash

    My point is that he likely exited because “this time was different” and he had an inside look into that.
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    Thiel’s fund wound down 8-year bitcoin bet before market crash

    They probably were married to it but realized that the intermediaries were of poor financial quality. They had access to these firms books as these firms were likely looking for financing and Peter thiel is a name you would love to have on your cap table. over 8 years there were tons of...
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    Cem Karsan - Gamma, Vanna & Charm

    The signal to noise ratio in ET is really high if you know who to follow.
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    Flip of a coin..but

    wealth is created as a civilization progresses by building things and improving its people’s standard of living (until it blows up). The stock market is a reflection of that wealth creation.
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    Is first in first out (FIFO) used for all personal trading?

    You can use fifo, lifo, or lot selection. a decent broker will let you choose. it can be worth a lot in deferred taxes to manage this (especially if you are old, will die soon, and plan to give your brokerage account to your kids who can enjoy a step up in basis).
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    Cem Karsan - Gamma, Vanna & Charm

    just the other day I traded some knock out cliquets from my Etrade account.
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    Cem Karsan - Gamma, Vanna & Charm

    you mean a narissistic self important over-intellectual bullshitter? i don’t think Benn is that. Cem definitely is.
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    Arbitrage free volatility surface and negative implied dividend yield

    correction: I updated my trade blotter this morning and I sold forward delta 2 points higher than I bought spot delta.
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    Cem Karsan - Gamma, Vanna & Charm

    there isn’t good research because there’s not a lot of value in understanding these flows. If two guys trade options with each other and neither hedge there is no impact to the market. If both hedge, there is no impact to the market. If one hedges then there is an impact. How do you determine...
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    Going full time

    i started 20 years ago, and there are just as many opportunities to earn as there was back then. those opportunities are different but at the end of the day, people are risk averse and will compensate you to take risk.
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    How Does One Figure Out The Absolute Minimal Serving Size of Fruits and Vegetables?

    3 minutes of sprinting in 30 second bursts and 3 sets of push-ups and that’s it?
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    AI & Religion

    A very vocal part of the country sees the Handmaids Tale as a utopia.
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    Going full time

    I don’t think AI will ever wipe out the small guy. automation and market access has however. All the small edges can be managed by bigger guys. And that has allowed trillions to flow into these strategies.
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    Going full time

    You are the perfect candidate to trade full time. You are flush with excess capital thanks to your pensions which are guaranteed to cover your expenses for life.
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    Going full time

    He went for the insurance. In those three years he had a pre-me baby and he had to ensure that his wife and kid were taken care off if he got hit by a bus. You can’t buy long term disability insurance on your own. You can buy health insurance (thank you Obama) but it’s crazy expensive. of...
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