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Yes, but do you truly think that the speculators that aren't able to take/make delivery are a significant enough proportion of the mkt to dictate its behavior? Point is that if the roll gets to the point where I, as a speculator capable of both taking and making delivery, see that it's...

Erm, this is very naive, tj. The longs don't have to close anything by expiration. Either I can take delivery of the bonds (which I would happily do, if it makes me money) or I can roll my position into the next contract. Neither of the two would necessarily have a negative impact on my PNL...

True, if the economy improves you win. Can I ask you, for purposes of illustrating something, how many contracts, roughly, you sold? Implausible, yes... Possible, most definitely. It's not about forcing YOU to buy them, but about someone somewhere with a lot of money needing a safe place to...

Well, these are nominal yields, so it's unlikely that they go properly negative. However, it has happened before and, in theory, can happen again. 3m bills, for instance, did trade negative during the height of the '08 crisis. In Japan and Switzerland negative money-mkt rates have also been...

OKI, makes sense... I hope you don't mind if I make a couple of comments. All are my personal opinions, so pls take a pinch of salt. 1) Buying from non-spec sources: a) I don't know if bond funds are reducing their exposure (and if you're concluding this on the basis of Bill Gross's...

Whoa, pardner, no need to get all edgy on me. You don't want to discuss your trade or you're feeling defensive or whatever, that's your prerogative, but there's no need to accuse me of being stupid. Moreover, as someone who trades this bond crap full-time for a living, I can tell you that "I...

Big D, would you care to communicate to me why you're so happy to sell bonds? What particular aspect makes you think they're a sell? Moreover, the roll isn't about the futures price "discount".

Erm, so what?

I don't see any particular reason why the ZN roll should necessarily be higher, roll after roll. Every roll is different, 'cause the two variables change from roll to roll. I don't really see a good way to look at the rolls other than actually looking at the cheapness/expensiveness of the...

I'm in agreement with mohd. An MBA is sorta worthless in terms of educational payload, but it's very valuable in terms of networking. It's also a pre-requisite to advancement in certain specific professions.

Well, you should have also just noticed the claims number and Philly Fed, no?

Regarding your question about flies, most commonly they're dv01-weighted to ensure that the trade is outright duration-neutral. There are other ways, as you have correctly surmised.

That was a nice block that went through in the ultra-long, wasn't it? 9 bags, $2mm/bp of duration lifted just like dat. Cash 10s30s (currents) trading at 106 now.

I think there might be something wrong with your version of Java or something... I am seeing all the data there in my browser at the moment.

I have no idea whether Aussie bond futures are available on IB, tbh, as I am not an IB expert. You may want to search for YM and XM futures; maybe you'll find them. Otherwise, I'd suggest asking IB. As to thoughts, I don't have a strong view on outright Aussie rates, since it's really largely...

Very nice... Creatures of Light and Darkness - Roger Zelazny Demon Princes series - Jack Vance Neverwhere - Neil Gaiman The Rediscovery of Man - Cordwainer Smith The City and the Stars - Arthur C. Clarke Snow Crash - Neal Stephenson And many others...

As to ZN, I think you're a wee bit confused with the whole decimal vs 32s prices. The Sep-Dec spread is arnd 27/32s, whereas the Dec-Mar spread is arnd 31/32s, which, given the non-existent liquidity of the 3rd contract, means the two rolls are identical. In general, liquidity only exists in...

Let me say it again... You're comparing a spot instrument to a fwd instrument. It's like saying there are minor differences between the cash Spooz and the ES future. As a specific example, the spread between EURUSD spot and the front EURUSD future has varied between -1.2 and 1.7 big figures...

Looks like a nice opportunity for you gents today, innit?

I don't understand why the sh1theads can't make the mkt in the weighted spread liquid, like they do for the Aussie bond futures on the SFE (the infamous ABFS).