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Interesting... Do they really advertise Deutsche Bank deposits in Belgium as "safer", due to the German backstop? That's food for thought right there.

+100

What are the exact legal arrangements? What is the ccy in which the insurance fund pays out? Is that explicitly specified in the legal docs? What are the assets held by the insurance fund against potential claims? All these things may matter, if we go to the bitter end. I don't know if you...

I dunno about that... Take an extreme, where everyone drops out of the EUR, apart from Germany, which decides, by sheer coincidence, to call its new ccy EUR. What's the EURUSD exchange rate in this case? Then imagine a case that it's not just Germany, but rather Germany + Holland. I am not...

'Cause a) Eurodollars are super liquid; b) the relationships are more intuitive than other spreads; c) have reasonably liquid option markets available; d) offer the right amount of uncertainty that a market can actually meaningfully exist; and e) there's a whole lot of contracts, so you can form...

I dunno... Depends on who's in it at that point, I suppose. If we imagine that all the Club Med coconuts have dropped out by then and all you're left with are Germany, Holland, Finland, etc, EURUSD is likely to be at nearer 2. I suppose in that case there's no reason for them all to go their...

Ha... That is the bazillion $$$ question and one can imagine all sorts of interesting scenarios (especially, in light of the TARGET2 imbalances). The reality is that nobody really knows.

I am not missing your point, which, incidentally, is trivial. You don't need to explain the basic exchange rate mechanism. As to the UK QE, do you always believe 100% what is stated by the CB/govt? Please... What do you expect them to say? "Yes, we're doing QE to devalue the currency and...

I don't want to argue with you. You're not listening to me (or not hearing what I am saying). If you were, you would realize that I have already responded to you regarding the first part of your query. As to the UK QE being "different to debt pay off QE, which would be seen in the Euro"...

I have already said everything I have to say on the subject. A few times, if I am not mistaken. Hence, my point above. As to other people, frankly, dear, I just don't give a damn.

Not sure that's the term I'd use... More like distribution of possible future "fair values". If you're able to locate areas where there's too much or too little "weight" vs a "reasonable" forecast, that's edge.

I give up... You're just too confused and there's no getting through to you. Best of luck!

These are negative REAL yields, not to be confused with negative nominal yields. There's a whole variety of reasons why real yields are negative, for a whole variety of sovereign issuers. Negative real yield doesn't mean that an investor pays to lend money to the UK government.

Yes, and the sky is blue. The point you're making is blindingly obvious. Yes, all else being equal, QE is likely to weaken the domestic currency, as well as discourage foreign investors from holding domestic currency-denominated bonds. However, it's also blindingly obvious to pretty much...

"Value" is always somewhat subjective...

It actually happened at arnd 7 or 9PM GMT. The mkt knew much earlier.

Whatever, mate... I normally try to do my best to discuss stuff, no matter how outlandish, but in this case I just can't muster the energy necessary to wade through your confused ramblings. I am sorry.

I guess that's why foreign investors have been buying record amounts of UK gilts? The consequences of BoE's QE have been so devastating to those foreign investors they just can't stop buying and gilts can't stop rallying... Please, morganist, stop this rubbish.

What's going to be the new trend? Italian- or Spanish-style auctions?

Don't think there are any good options available to you. Unless you talk to your FX broker and get them to accept your USD assets as collateral.