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Moreover, one should never forget to include the "risk-neutral" qualifier when talking about all these probabilities.

You're not HowardCohodas by any chance?

Indeed...

I am sure it's the good ole Reiner-Rubinstein closed form formula (based on their 1991 paper). You should be able to find it in Haug's "Complete Guide to Option Pricing Formulas" (section 2.8.6 of the 2006 edition). EDIT: sorry, this is actually the TOS probability of touching I am thinking...

Sure, I 100% agree with everything you have said above... In general, my view is that the markets (of all sorts) represent, currently and as of now, the best methodology we humans have to discover and establish value in a world of uncertainty. Sure, this methodology has a whole variety of...

Yes, this is pretty much my understanding as well... As I have mentioned on another thread, Corzine and MFG decided to, effectively, put it all on black in a variety of mkts. Problem was that the bets were correlated and, taken together, 100% lethal.

Well, I have some sympathy with this view... We should all understand the risks that are naturally found arnd us. However, my general principle in life is that everything is good in moderation. Being aware of risk and understanding what financial assets represent is a good thing. Total...

I strongly disagree with this, Ed... This is the very first sentence in the article: "A legal loophole in international brokerage regulations means that few, if any, clients of MF Global are likely to get their money back". To me, this is the author claiming there's a direct causal connection...

????? Well, quite apart from the tautology above, in theory any asset can fall in value... Who says that US treasuries are worth anything? Should the money mkts stop, because the values of assets fluctuate? Again, not that I am trying to abuse the analogy, but should everyone stop having...

I am sorry, even if the above were true, I don't see what that has to do with either the article or my comment...

The big point of what? The original article or my response?

I am not sure how the Medallion fund did in 2011. The returns of circa 35% are for the other Renaissance vehicle (REIF, if I am not mistaken). And yes, there's no or very little external money left in Medallion, which is the headline beast of a fund.

I think you should talk to the CME, Vortex, become a liquidity provider and punt the Swiss Franc futures in massive size. There, problem solved :). In seriousness, it's very simple. The CME FX futures (pretty much all of them, not just the Swiss) are much less deep and liquid than the spot...

No need to get all melodramatic... Where did I say that all is well and everyone's buying? You made a blanket categorical statement, which I believe is incorrect. I offered a counterexample, to illustrate that the situation is a bit more nuanced and complicated than you make it appear...

The author starts off by suggesting that the MF Global client money was somehow "misplaced" or "misused" and re-hypothecation is the culprit. Then the author states that apparently it's not re-hypothecation itself that's the problem, but rather the degree to which a broker can engage in this...

Hmmmm, not sure about this... Aren't t-bills debt? If that's the case, Greek t-bills are trading out there in the 'normal public mkt' and Greece is still issuing them, without too much of a problem and at somewhat reasonable rates that. They're not trading in the distressed mkt for deep...

http://www.hedgefundresearch.com/index.php?fuse=press

It's good to see that, while the "end of the world through hyperinflation" threads have stopped, the "end of the world through QE" ones are still ongoing. Such constancy of purpose is truly refreshing!

Sure, I will happily respond... As to the "private" mkt for Greek bonds, there certainly is one and it's pretty lively. Lots and lots of hedge funds involved (the specialized distressed/credit ones). Do you want to see some two-way pricing? GGBs trade in 5 - 10MM clips these days.

There's volume and liquidity in the FF futures mkt. It's just that there's a lot less to do, with the Fed on hold, which means that there's much less action. It's like trading Euroyen.