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  1. M

    Young FX Trader Goes to Town!

    What a muppet! "Regularly trading millions"! Imagine that...
  2. M

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Fair enough or, as we say arnd these here parts, fairy muff... I am happy to take your criticism in the spirit it was offered. I will go read a couple of them books (starting w/Drobny) and see if I can disabuse myself of my possibly erroneous preconceptions.
  3. M

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Well, firstly, I agree with you, in general. To each their own and I have said this a number of times. If you're a macro guy, I can see how trading books can be of help. I can also appreciate the fact that it's very timeframe-dependent, as you suggest. Moreover, I completely agree that macro...
  4. M

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Well, you see, GoC, as I have said before, we're just going to continue to disagree on this. To me, Kahneman's papers and books of that sort (generally classified as works on behavioural economics/finance) actually have a lot more to do with trading than many "trading books". I, for one, am...
  5. M

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Sure thing... I will read it and see if Drobny manages to restore my faith in humanity :).
  6. M

    81 Resignations From World Banks 2/27/12

    Oh no, quick, call the CIA! Bankers resigning! It's a crisis of biblical proportions!
  7. M

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Well, my friend GoC, we're just gonna have to disagree on this one... Firstly, as I keep saying, I ain't a macro punter (what little macro punting I do is PA and mostly for fun). There ain't no books out there for the stuff that I do, 'cause it just isn't very glamorous and fashionable...
  8. M

    Question about deltahedging

    I am normally not sure of anything... However, there's one thing that I am relatively sure of: gamma doesn't remain the same after the underlying moves. I don't really understand the argument you're making. Just do the actual arithmetic and see if you disaagree.
  9. M

    Year To Year Inflation at 8%

    Ha, not sure about that... Should be good for everyone from where I'm sitting.
  10. M

    Gasoline Prices Are Not Rising, the Dollar Is Falling

    Yes, DXY is a measure of USD vs a basket of other ccies. I don't really know how to measure USD in a way that wouldn't be relative to something else and, as such, potentially distorted. In which case what does "dollar devaluation" actually mean? At any rate, if you can suggest alternatives...
  11. M

    Gasoline Prices Are Not Rising, the Dollar Is Falling

    Don't be a muppet, DBCL... Look at the attached chart (DXY vs the 1st Brent contract). Do you see any particular relationship? Do you observe that this year DXY has gone down arnd 1.25%, while Brent moved the other way by roughly 11.5%? If you do a linear regression between the two...
  12. M

    FGBL

    Well, someone's been lifting 142 calls in the bund recently, so looks like there are people out there who think it goes higher.
  13. M

    Year To Year Inflation at 8%

    Interesting and insightful methodology, I would say, having read through the details of what they do. One issue I would have with this would be that, due to its extreme volatility, base effects will be much more significant. That implies that at any given point a particular YoY number would be...
  14. M

    Determining the best strike combos for an OTM Strangle ?

    What precisely are you trying to maximize/minimize and what are the constraints?
  15. M

    Gasoline Prices Are Not Rising, the Dollar Is Falling

    I will take this as a compliment... Grazie!
  16. M

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    I would definitely agree with that... I'll go borrow my wife's copy of Drobny and read it more carefully.
  17. M

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Well, here's the thing... I generally have a few issues with these sorts of books. Firstly, it often turns out that these "successful" people aren't quite as good as they're portrayed to be. For example, I think we did talk about that Siva-Jothy fellow on this thread. The mighty do fall...
  18. M

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    No, I have no direct association w/Barclays or any other IB. And no, when I said I am not an IBanker, I meant that I am not employed by a bank, rather than the other meaning.
  19. M

    Italian Bond yields to hit 8% by end of this week!! *CELEBRATION*

    I don't need a warning, amico. I am not short Italy.
  20. M

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    I can't and don't deny this, not at all... It's just that, IMHO, the usefulness of reading about other people's performance is marginal at best. Personally, I can find a lot of better uses for my time in the mkt. Specifically, I'd rather spend this time doing some analysis and trying to find...
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