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So as I mentioned earlier, I think this is rather interesting and nuanced point. Personally, I am 100% on board with the X & Y strategy you describe in your other post. In the world of rates, for example, unless you do outright macro, it's imperative that you find some ways to be long some...

I thought I also should include a picture to represent what things look like and what the risk is. The chart shows the Eurodollar strip today, as well as in mid-2003.

Sorry, my bad. A bag is 1000 lots, so 16 bags of Eurodollar condor is 64,000 lots in total, across all contracts.

Pls see my edited post above. Apologies for editing.

This, in my view, and based on my personal experience, completely incorrect. EDIT: Apologies for the above. I didn't read what you have written with sufficient attention, GoC. I actually don't disagree, as it's a more nuanced point you make. I will respond more meaningfully to this and...

That is precisely my point... To me the conclusion from all this is that generalizations are not worthwhile in this and every case is going to be different, in which case there's nothing interesting to say, other than "always do your own due diligence and homework".

I can see this, to a degree, but a word of caution is warranted I believe. How many of these "failures" happened at the expense of others, with the culprit walking away scot-free? And are lessons from such failures all that valuable? Case in point, John Meriwether...

No, I don't know nuthin' about no CNBC...

I think expectations are pretty high for some sort of "extended guidance" indication. Quite a few strategy peeps have talked about it in recent days.

I don't think it has anything to do with the ever shrinking traditional futures/options pie. If I had to guess, I'd say they're trying to get into the OTC derivatives/repo clearing in Europe early. This might turn out to be a lucrative business and in Europe it's currently dominated by one...

Whatever you say, dear... As long as you don't try to operate heavy machinery everything is going to be just fine.

No, that's not LIBOR-OIS... LIBOR-OIS is a spread between 3M LIBOR and 3M Overnight Index Swap (OIS) rate. It is not the spread between 3M LIBOR and O/N LIBOR (that would be a very wrong spread to calculate). Currently (as of last night's close), LIBOR-OIS is arnd 29bps (3M LIBOR 42.075bps...

Huh? Where can I get some of that good stuff you're smoking, jacko?

Talk to headhunters... Try here, might be smth there for you: http://nuclearphynance.com/Job%20Advertisments/default.aspx http://www.wilmott.com/jobsboard/

Yep, so this is definitely a theme that's playing itself out in the mkt over the past few days (driven by all sorts of forecasts for what exactly happens at Jackson Hole). For example, one type of trade is various structures that oppose the "hockey stick"'ness of the Eurodollar strip. For...

I completely agree. I am sure that it's precisely this point that Aaron was making (I haven't read the book). All I was saying was that, by default, without any a priori information, high volatility is worse for survival. There are certainly going to be specific cases where high volatility...

Well, firstly, governments impose unproven quackery on society all the time, so if this is one of these cases you'll have to forgive me if I fail to muster the required outrage. Secondly, no unproven quackery is being imposed (so far), given that the particular people we're discussing represent...

Yeah, indeed... I have been looking at this stuff again recently, 'cause there's been a lot of activity in the past couple of days. Basically, it's all just based on the expectation among many market participants that the Fed will do what had been mentioned in the minutes recently...

Lower volatility is better because the assumptions required for such a conclusion are much "less strong" than the assumptions needed to conclude that there's some sort of evolution that eventually leads to a stronger outcome. This is, in fact, confirmed by basic statistics, and not just in the...

It's a date, amico...