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Yeah I concur with this. I think Fisher knows the right things to say on TV but he definitely is not that this sophisticated.

No. What he means by derivative is the idea of capturing a change before another change takes place. Think of it kind of like front running. The word derivative is a measure of change, it is mathematically represented as a slope. The slope measures the change in Y for a given change in X...

There is a huge disparity in locations. When oil was at $150 and gasoline prices in Chicago and CA were close to 5.50, most prices in TX never made it over 3.00. You cannot track the price of oil and gas. Logistics costs are twice as volatile as crude prices. It's like these idiots who...

Here we go again. The cost of crude only makes up 50% of the price of gasoline. Complain to your local Senators, not the oil companies.

Thnx for the link!

I had a few things on (options) that weren't terribly price sensitive. I was just really busy and always out somewhere and in the evenings completely exhausted. I like to do things in a normal routine.

Well, no. Bonds and notes you collect interest. Bills and savings bonds as well through their discount factor. When you buy a 30 year bond future all future cash flows are discounted to the future. Do you collect interest as in having interest paid in your account? You can collect...

You are capturing the "change" in rate not the rate itself.

I'm seeing a lot of conflicting signals which is actually pretty normal for August trading. The long Bond trade still looks good. WTI short looks good. I was surprised at the weak number line for dollar/yen being that it's been holding so well. Dollar/Peso and Dollar/Loony still acting...

I think an idiot is someone who doesn't realize their IP can be turned over to police after they post on an open forum step by step how they intend to defraud their broker. And yes, they can and will find you. You're making it way to easy for them.

The holiday was really long. Two weeks for me is like taking off a year. Loved London. Vienna was nice and actually really affordable. Paris was pretty dirty. I had no idea how mad the slums were outside Paris. I would say 95% of Paris is poor slums and 5% is very nice and what you see...

It's amazing to me the actual lengths people will go to in order to avoid hard work.

Honestly, I think it's why it's so effective. The absolute discipline and work that is required to maintain the edge is why you don't have to worry about "everyone doing it". That's a common question I often get is why can't everyone just score number lines and make millions or just automate...

I knew there was a reason why I never took vacations. Updating number lines after time away is quite a long and tedious chore.

Yes. So here is the uniqueness of ACD. The 30 day number lines usually track the fundamentals because it basically tracks the inside buyers and sellers footprints. You will find more often then not that the 30 day trades in the same direction as the underlying fundamentals. This is why I...

Perfect failed weekly A up King. I don't have a number line on it though.

So here are some thoughts of mine on the role fundamental analysis and ACD. Broadly speaking one has to be very careful about mixing the two. The reason for this is it can cause the trader to "choose" the path that supports their bias more. For example, one is long IBM on a technical signal...

There is an interest rate component embedded in the contract that gives the contract some convexity in that if you are short ED and they go down, because you get the p&l from the day to day marks, the excess p&l can be re-invested at the higher rate and vice versa losses can be paid at lower rates.

Right, I should have been more clear. It's not a discount as in t-bills or savings bonds but the interest rate is embedded in the contract, i.e a 3% forward rate is equivalent to 97.00 in the futures.