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  1. M

    The ACD Method

    Should be a nice OR for the new monthlys.
  2. M

    The ACD Method

    Great video guys. Watch it!
  3. M

    The ACD Method

    Thanks for the heads up!
  4. M

    Taleb fund and how it profited

    http://www.menshealth.com/fiscally-fit-man/how-become-billionaire
  5. M

    The ACD Method

    There were some very bad prints in stocks and ETFs. I didn't hear of any trades being busted.
  6. M

    Taleb fund and how it profited

    This is completely false. For one, it was an example to make the math easy to understand. But one can get some yield further out on the curve and hold to maturity. Sure they have inflation risk which is decent risk to hold in a deflationary world. Yes Virginia, you have to take some risk...
  7. M

    Taleb fund and how it profited

    He doesn't disclose performance. The only time it gets leaked out is when an investor reports it. He doesn't come on TV and tell people how much they make either. His numbers have been disclosed over the years by various inside investors and they are pretty impressive given what they do...
  8. M

    Taleb fund and how it profited

    His strategy has been "loosely" explained in the past. One way to do this without bleeding to death is to take your Principal and invest in FRA (forward rate agreement) for some duration. Take the net present value of that sum and aggressively invest in outliers. You only use the forward...
  9. M

    Taleb fund and how it profited

    It's amazing to me how difficult it is for some people to conduct simple research to find answers to simple questions. Why not listen to the man himself who runs the fund and hear his answers. BTW, this took me less then 10 seconds to find...
  10. M

    VIX ETFs performance on 8/25 (XIV, SVXY, VXX, ETC)

    When vol is this high it doesn't simply go back down. It's a process.
  11. M

    VIX ETFs performance on 8/25 (XIV, SVXY, VXX, ETC)

    Guys, the VIX is in STEEP backwardation!!!!!! You cannot buy XIV here without bleeding to death. The market is paying you to be long vol not short it. As long as we are in backwardation you should not be buying short vol ETFs. They roll every day at a loss!!!!!! Come on guys.
  12. M

    The ACD Method

    OK, little word of caution here. I know it can be convenient to plan our future trades like that but I need to really caution against doing that. The number lines are dropping like a rock and if we re-set I would not fade it. I know I've looked ahead on things like that too only to get to...
  13. M

    R.I.P. - Don Bright

    I got a text Wednesday night about this and was very sad to hear this. I reached out to Don about a year ago to check in on him and see how he was doing. I wish I followed up again more recently. Don was a good man. A father, husband, a veteran, poker player and trader. Don and I worked...
  14. M

    Extreme FX loss

    This is correct. Loan forgiveness is a taxable event. So is "gifting" money to someone. The broker is "paying" him 25k by not collecting it. That 25k is taxable. Of course he can always pay the broker the 25k and report the full 75k loss if he chooses to do that.
  15. M

    The ACD Method

    Yeah the only thing that will help a trader understand this market is having been through it before. This is really where the "experience" factor comes into trading. I feel sorry for guys who have just come into the market and have not seen this price action before. It's pretty typical and...
  16. M

    The ACD Method

    Let me say this.....anyone who tries to short this market (indices) with a stop will get taken out. Anyone who tries to buy this market with a stop will get taken out. The market will not bottom until the marginal speculator has emptied his pockets and leaves the room. Expect this price...
  17. M

    The ACD Method

    Yeah a lot of people think bear markets are volatile. But what bear markets are really is simply just a lack of buying. That's why the rallies fade and why the selloffs are so slow and gradual. Bull markets are full of leverage and quick buying and selling and aggressive risk taking. A good...
  18. M

    The ACD Method

    Yes and no. Bear markets are really boring. They "generally" open up and drip lower but the ranges are very small. The avg bear market usually last 12 to 18 months. Bull markets are actually characterized by very violent price action. It only feels weird because the last 4 years or so the...
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