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Well, given that horrendous decline we saw this year it's going to be hard statistically speaking to have lower "avg costs". My guess is that avg fuel price will be only slightly higher next year.

NOB spread still trending higher along with WTI XZ. TF/ES got smacked pretty hard today. That "had" been trending nicely as well.

Yeah I modify all spreads shorter to compensate for the combined price effect.

My gasoline crack confirmed negative yesterday. Although it's really beaten down at these levels.

Pretty quiet around here....

Speaking of Natty, nice wick off the Quarterly A down today.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-23/traders-spooked-by-el-nino-grind-winter-gas-to-a-16-year-low

I still have a choppy number number line for USD/JPY. The two best pairs I have right now is long USD/CAD due to the weak oil. Peso is also ripping but that re-set for me. The loony did not. And if you want to short risk right now, stay the eff away from the ES and short GBP/JPY.

Your long a synthetic swap. No positive p&l. The value of the swap is equivalent to the interest rate differential. So if you are locking in positive basis on the swap, that means you will pay out the basis over the duration of the contract.

Thanks for posting this. That was a great video to watch.

Two of my four volatility indicators triggered today.

One of the trades that just keeps working is the NOB spread. Very smooth.

The Dow and S&P 500 are about to confirm for me as well to the upside.

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/15/hayman-capitals-bass-chinas-real-problem-is-its-banking-sector.html Great stuff! There are 3 videos to watch here so watch them all (they are short).

That's why this AUD/USD is performing so well. Looks like more follow through to come.

Cheap as in when implied vol goes up, the price of flys comes down, i.e they become very cheap. Today turned out to be rather uneventful.

Just put on some cheap vol plays for Fed. Huge payout for small risk.

I also got buy signals across the entire Yen complex today.

I've got a 30 day confirm on Bonds today.

Thnx for posting. China is a mess.