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Yea, and I'll be honest... This is very boring compared to trying to predict the economy. Predicting when the next bubble may burst, etc. But I'll do whatever works. I'd love to just "set it and forget it"

This is what I've been working on the past 2 nights. I downloaded an Excel spreadsheet of all the daily numbers for the S&P since 1991. So it's about 30 years of data. I determined the following things... The S&P goes up 53.54% of days, and down 46.4% of days. It gains at least 1% on 12.8% of...

So you're saying that the S&P will reach a new ATH before it drops below it's low of 8 days ago? And what if you're wrong?

I think everyone here agrees that stocks will eventually go back up. But there is plenty of reason to believe there may be more downside first.

Demand for government bonds today is evidence we're still in a bear market

Despite today's bullish market... You can see bond rates are still going down. I take this as longer-term bearish conditions.

So the price increases 4x, but you only own 1/4 as many shares? How does that change anything?

Basically, it would have to gain 30% in one day to ever give it a chance to approach it's previous price levels? What would happen if GDX lost 33.4% or more? Making the 3x >100% negative in one day? Would they close the fund permanently?

I didn't mean the fund was closed. I meant the price will never recover to previous levels? Why or why not?

Even if UWT gets back to $2, that's a gain of 1123%!!! It's a certainty that the economy will heal eventually, given enough time. To me, it doesn't have to be next quarter. It could be next year.

I believe you should look longer-term. Try to predict several months from now. The randomness of a single day hardly matters then. That's why I'm not sweating my loss on SPXS so far today.

Yes I know you're not "supposed" to hold them for more than a day. I bought TMF back in September at about 33. I decided to sell it in December at about 27. Then after, it rose as high as 51. It's now at about 45.5. I read about them before I bought them in September. But then I read other...

The probability of the economy returning to normal given enough time is practically 100%. Key words... "given enough time." When things are falling like now, it could be an advantage for those willing to wait a long time to see returns.

UWT though? So NUGT is permanently down also? (Pic attached). Tell me why.

Is that better? Tell me how to adjust it and what to add.

Ok. Same question but change OILU to UWT.

Ok I just saw there's a member here named Picasso. You're referring to him?

I don't even know what you're saying. Are you calling me Picasso? Are you making a joke? Are you insulting me? Are you agreeing with me?

OILU. 3x crude oil ETF. It dropped so much since January. From $24.29 to $0.217. (Or is this because it's only holding is a futures contract that expires in April?) So when things get back to normal, even if it only goes up to $21, that's a 100x increase. It might take 12 months to get there...

What do you TA guys think when you see this? Do you draw chart patterns? For some reason, I think it's about to drop. But this is based on just a hunch. Is TA used intraday only? Like I said... I'm all for learning if there's something to learn.