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I have talked a lot about losses I had.

I researched and found that year 2000 was a good cutoff point.

If you say so.

Really? Go back and read who started it. Look in the mirror.

I'm not saying it's a guarantee. I'm just saying this combination gave me the best odds.

Did you miss where I said I analyzed 20 years of daily S&P data? Historically, this would hit TP 94% of the time.

Sure why not

I could have just as easily done 30. But I was advised to only include since they started HFT, so I picked year 2000.

I know. But I don't know what to do about that. One thing that helps is that I always invest the same amount. So I don't suffer the same type of "decay" that leveraged Etfs do. If I win, I set the money aside. If I lose, I have to bring more money into the account (or use what I had set aside).

One thing that throws my numbers off is that I can only set limits at 0.25 increments. But nothing I can do about that.

The odds do make sense though. Using these limits over the past 20 years... I would have a 6% chance of losing 30% of my invested money... And a 94% chance of gaining 7%. (-30% * .06) + (7% * .94) = +4.78% These are better odds than any other combination I found.

And how is this an idiotic thread?

I know. Did you read my post a couple days ago about analysing past 20 years of daily data? According to that, it will hit my TP 94% of the time. I expect to have losses. So far in real, I'm 2 wins and no losses. Including paper trading, it's 5-1.

What is the point of your comments?

Uwt

Lots of analysis went into picking the TP (+0.7%) and SL (-3%). Yes, I would need to win 77% of the time. Historically, I would win 95% of the time at those limits. But this does get messed up some because I'm only able to see limits at 0.25 intervals.

I just did it again! Total $1400.

I did lots of statistical analysis that showed I would win over time. Do you notice that the TP is a lot closer than the SL? In fact, the TP is 0.7%, the SL at 3%. If you so the SL is ~4.29x as far. Multiply $700 by that, you get $3000. $3000 is obviously higher than $2980. And that doesn't...

I bought MESM20 this morning at 2484.50. Using the results of my statistical analysis, I placed TP at 2502, and SL at 2410. I got real worried after that big dip from the jobless numbers. It got as low as 2428. I would have lost $2,980 if it hit SL. I thought maybe I shouldn't use this strategy...

Your username = green every day. Since 2000, the S&P has gone up 54% of days and down 46% of days. Therefore, your name is incorrect. Now if you wanted to say "green over time" then everyone would agree with you. But as I said before, that's not much of a prediction.