Search results

The ETF BZF is the only way I know. They are essentially priced off NDFs. Implied yield is something like 9%(does not come out as dividends but cap gains distributions, which are tax free to non resident aliens)

Decided to buy more BZL but not offset that by closing part of my short USD long comm currencies. So essentially a hybrid solution of the 2 best choices, I'm 'overhedging' to make up for the lower volatility of comm currencies compared to the brazilian real, plus increasing my share of the real...

The BZF is already sorta like BRL cash. Its NAV is priced off NDFs on the currency. The reason it embedded income is less than the central bank rate was because the market was pricing in future appreciation. I hope this lastest collapse has stopped people from thinking the currency could only go up

I'm considering a potential solution: holding a basket of the 3 highest correlated currencies to the BRL in a beta-position sizing adjusted way. If I find out that the BRL is 30% more volatile than the AUD, I would short USDAUD with a position bigger in 30% than the hedged amount There are...

I agree with all of this. Problem is IB doesn't offer BRL. BRL is a quasi Chinese Yuan when it comes to convertibility

I face a dilemma right now because I'm 'making money' in terms of reals as the BRL is plunging. Even though I have some laggards in my basket(NOK, SEK), the real is doing worse than everything else(even silver!). In 2008 I had gains of this kind but since I didn't had a good alternative to buy...

Priceless. After intervening almost every single trading day of 2011 trying to weaken the real, the brazilian central bank is now trying to strengthen it

I dont think there is much of a chance that they will devalue by those numbers. It would essentially amount to a gigantic QE program and if anything CBs have been under delivering in the QE sizes

http://www.hkma.gov.hk/media/eng/publication-and-research/quarterly-bulletin/qb201109/E_halfyear.pdf It seems to me that looking at FX interventions over the past years that CBs tend to act during period of 'maximum pain', days where the currency moves a large amount in a short-period and...

A good article by Sumner on why the Fed has been actually too tight over the past years http://www.nationalaffairs.com/publications/detail/re-targeting-the-fed Even though that is not the impression you get by reading all the pundits and newspapers out there. This is the stuff that edges in...

I'm not sure. I'm losing my patience with IB. Now stocks smaller than $250m in cap won't be margin able. What's even worse, I only found out this today even though they announced early in the week. Think the email might have gotten stuck on anti-spam

I just find it hilarious that you are a broker named remorse

No cut on IOR, I don't know what Hatzius was drinking

I feel vindicated on the Brazilian Real. I had to watch that beast go up every week for a long-time but decided to not hedge my USD exposure using that but rather did a combination of 25% Real + gold/silver + basket of currencies Currency tumbling high now. It seems that the SNB move has...

True. But if their equities do that, real estate will be on the moon. Inflation also will be insanely high

Guess there wasn't enough tin foil hatmaking and threats against the chairman scrotum in my post

NGDP = M * V. Fed can boost both by doing these types of stimulus, to the extend that nominal fluctuations in cause real problems(And I believe the 1930's show that pretty clearly) these stimulus measures will dimish the real impact of sticky wages, prices and debt deflation

Look at the CHF. Huge market that responded immediately. The onus is on you to explain why risk free profits would stay out there for so long

I very much doubt this. USTs should respond immediately to the announcement and reach an equilibrium level where it would be almost equivalent to Fed reserves. This is a fallacy that Scott Sumner seem to be falling to as well. Its like if MSFT announced they are buying a stock that trades at...

This resembles more a undercapitalized bank rather than a Ponzi