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Normally I would believe these sorts of metrics are flawed due the black swan possibility but here I believe the market is overestimating the chance of a tail even where they let the currency go and jump into more deflation

Since this is a trade based on mean reversion where I believe the downside has a very small chance of happening I might use some kind of statistic based on standard deviation, like bollinger bands to take profits here

Swiss inflation has hit almost -1%. I have a hard time seeing the CB, giving up the peg given that FX intervention is the perfect opportunity for them to engage in QE Dropping the peg would effectively tighten monetary policy, equivalent to several interest rate hikes, I don't think even the...

Long EURCHF, small position, 1.20174. Wish I was the guy at 1.20

Are AMD processors less durable?Because they consistently beat Intel on the bang for the buck criteria yet AFAIK they have much less R&D then Intel

Any studies on this?

I would agree with the technique of 'adding to winners' or testing the markets and adding more later on IF its based on the fact the trader all of sudden thinks the trade has increased in expectation, specially if it derives from a decreased chance of a loss(And by Loss I mean the price changing...

I wrote about Groupon here more than 1 year ago, called them a scam who were engaging in lending transactions with junk companies. This guy seem to agree http://venturebeat.com/2012/03/31/why-groupon-is-poised-for-collapse/#.T3jAd6hKVbo.twitter Problem is, it costs 30% a year to short GRPN...

Minutes might start a Fed futures crash

No, because as I said the whole reason for me to be trading that instrument is because I believe I have a take on it that is better than the market. If the trader is consistently wrong on that he is going to go broke no matter if he uses technical stops or not

You pay $200 for that shot, that is the difference, plus there are the chance of a split, taxes, etc Try to think in terms of where the cash is going, since 50% is taken right away this is like playing roulette without zeros with a 50% fee by the casino

But how do you know its superior to use say 2.7 times the daily volatility as opposed to 3.1 times?Or to use a widespread technical level that everyone knows about based on TA? Backtesting 'evidence' could be simply a case of being fooled by randomness, I rather look at the CONCEPT of the...

I believe you can find better odds elsewhere. The Mega Millions ticket was worth about 69 cents on the dollar after-tax, a loss of 31%. This one seems to be a loss of 50% PRE-tax, after tax should be more I'm not sure its a good idea to sell lottery tickets for $200, the whole idea of...

I'm afraid most people using technical stops don't have an edge on them simply because they have become too widely promoted(highs, lows, round numbers, common TA levels etc) so they are just paying more in commissions/bid ask spread when they could be better off working more on their analyticall...

I guess I can add a third situation where a stop can be helpful -As a psychological trick, sometimes having a mechanical rule to get out helps one feel that 'its the system fault' or 'see how disciplined I am, taking this loss and following my rule' and decrease the amount of psychological...

Plus as far as drawdowns are concerned, not using stops won't necessarily mean bigger drawdowns given that it can all be controlled through position sizing. This is why I don't see much value in stops UNLESS -They provide an edge in themselves(You know something about a technical point or...

darkhorse, This seems to come down to the issue of whether stops can improve or hurt trading performance. I have a love hate relationship with stops, simply because I see some flaws in them. Take someone who is counting cards in a blackjack game in a casino that is not aware of it, he has...

Frankly I'm yet to understand you guys AMZN short thesis. PE ratios usually are not important in these momentum tech type stocks

I'm talking about % of stocks that go bankrupt % of stocks that rise over X years etc etc

Yes, these stocks can be driven up(Only to crash later) through spam alerts and so called penny stocks 'newsletters', sometimes they stay more than 100%+ overvalued for quite a while before the crash, this shows how much more inefficient they are I'm all for betting on black swans but even...