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lol, I guess Warren Buffett doesn't meat your criteria of value investor and Graham follower then

If catching knifes is not profitable then there are excess returns to be earned by shorting knifes. Its contradictory to not be short JPM then I already know the reply 'but its too uncertain, I have no confidence either way' exactly, its in this type of situations that stocks are sold bellow...

As much as I wrote about the possibilities of a Greek exit, I don't necessarily believe its the most likely scenario for this year. Simply because I don't trust the politicians when they say 'accept terms or you are out of EUR zone'. Its going to create a lot of panic and contagion to kick them...

If the Grexit were priced in I would expect all Greek banks to be bankrupt due lack of liquidity by now(Plus reports of ATMs failling, people not being able to get cash from banks, wires being delayed etc). Once the Grexit becomes consensus the banks will collapse pretty quickly(If the don't do...

Not true at all. People have only began to seriously consider a Grexit after the elections

http://dealbreaker.com/2012/05/the-tale-of-a-whale-of-a-fail/2/ This seems the best explanation I've seen so far of JPM trades. The short CDS bets seem it were a hedge of a long CDS bet that were a hedge of the corporate exposure of the company At this point what holds me back are 2 things...

The reason I say that is because big money investors look at the numbers and results to build their opinion. They don't make up their mind based on what Andrew Ross Sorkin says

http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2012/05/facts-about-jp-morgan.html The banking unit of JPMorgan Chase alone made $12.4 billion last year. The holding company has over $2.26 trillion in assets and is the largest U.S. bank and 8th largest in the world. The holding company made...

The stock could have been fairly valued in Feb at $37, but now undervalued at $37 and there would be no contradiction. Think about it

You should be short XLF then

Correct me if I'm wrong but Bank Bill is something like libor in Australia. If that is the correct there is not arbitrage at all. Libor in the US typically trade quite a bit above UST yields. 1 year libor in USD is about 1% right now, well above US T-Bills(0.17%). The difference is credit risk...

Also JPM is doing buybacks, this should help cushion the EPS impact as they probably will buy through this sell-off

I might buy JPM and short XLF due my fears of a recession plus EU fears hitting banks. What I don't like about pair trades is that it ties up a lot of cash and margin

I'm going to take a small position on JPM monday. Stock sell off seems to be mispricing the stock The Gordon Growth Model adjusted for earnings shows that there is a big difference between one time hits to earnings and changes in the growth rate of earnings. The former should impact how much...

I don't think they liquidated. Not enough time, if Dimon didn't commit securities fraud he only found out about it in less than business 4 days from the disclosure day

I'd point out one more thing. When my homework in a specific stock is very quick usually I'm going to be wrong(That is, the stock will underperform the index even if I make money). This is because markets tend to be efficient with obvious stuff, using a simplistic analysis of 'hey the PE ratio...

Sure sometimes the homework can be done faster but in this particular case I'd argue the bulk of the 'edge' lies on the correct macro call that Florida RE was bust instead of the micro analysis of the companies(The most levered companies would likely go up more if the macro thesis was incorrect...

With regards to short-term trading I wouldn't use(And don't use) secular views in it, except perhaps to multi-month trades. In that case I would be a bit more defensive if the trade involved stocks and a bit more aggressive if it involves commodities

I'd agree with Marc if he is talking about short-term trading but I use the secular view to justify my long-term decisions(Spend time learning macro instead of details about the oil industry companies cashflow statements and things like that, be underweight in equities most of the time, adjust...

Furthermore guys who are really great at stock picking usually move the market when they put their pick out. IIRC GMCR went down 17% when Einhorn disclosed, had I shorted instantly I might have taken a bit of that move but minutes is not enough to do due diligence These gaps work as a...