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good call so far

Most important thing is to learn from it so we do better next time

It feels like there is some good potential for this market to fall further. There are not hedges this time around (like USTs or gold), the only way for people to protect themselves is to go to cash or to short ES (or ZB I guess). September is pretty bad seasonality.

Hi, could you explain how did you arrive at 17 years?

Question is, why didnt I got long huge (maybe even leveraged) Brazilian stocks given how good the opportunity was in the depths of the crisis? I thought about that but I decided against. Mainly because at this point in my life I dont need to take crazy risk to live off well. I'm already at a...

2008/2009 was such a sweet opportunity because the way markets are priced, you could have just said "you know what? fuck it, im going long, not just long but leveraged long, in the tails you get killed, but with markets down 50%, it would have to be the tail of a tail, like a even greater...

Truth is, back in 2008/2009 I was too young and inexperienced. If I had the knowledge and skills that I have now as a trader/investor, I would have made a lot more on the way down and at some point went long big time. 3-5 years later I would have been able to retire if I wanted to. Instead I sat...

If that sounds crazy just consider how huge an opportunity 2008. I did a good job at avoiding being a long during the crisis but failed at capitalizing at those once in a lifetime valuations. Even safe stuff like investment grade corporate bonds were priced for great returns there. But I learned...

This is good, it prevents from people selling PG at 1 cent when markets go haywire

I mentioned that this type of sell-off (bonds and stocks at the same time) could be a good thing. One interesting calculation for that Lets say someone is in 30% in stocks, 30% in bonds and 40% in cash In the stock side, he is expected to get 4% (off inverted Shiller PE), in bonds 2% and on the...

Reestablished SPY short today, a bit before open. I wont be able to alert when i get out or in because things change too quickly

They probably do it in December, its a new american tradition, Santa Claus, Home Alone reruns and now the yearly Fed hike

The way I'm protecting myself against this expensive market is to limit the amount of risk taken, holding plenty of cash and low risk bonds to be able to reinvest in case things take a turn down. I believe this is prudent given how long markets have been pushed by central banks

another good one He talks about how a stock and bond mix right now have the worst expected returns in the history of the data (2.5% real), calls it an expensive market but not a bubble I disagree with him some on HFT, mainly because its an issue of law enforcement, which is important in a...

Good content here https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/beware-magic-alpha-cliff-asness.302694/

Markets caught a bid. Brainard just burried any chance of a Sep hike, there will be a hawkish statement but thats about it. To rush a hike with a few dissents would be just ridiculous

short some SPY. Having a poor reaction to the fed dove speech. will cover if market catches a bid

I see. I brought up the decision in the context of the Fed futures trade, which is short-term. But even without, IF they did hike in Sep, that would be a big deal. It would suggest some kind of framework change by the Fed, this could have implications about valuations going forward, and how much...

A case can be made that hedging against a big drop in stocks is unecessary. 2008 was the opportunity for a life time to get rich. For those with some cash and/or bonds plus income coming in, a 2008 style collapse is an great opportunity to get rich and retire

So, if stocks put some kind of nice pop, I will try to reestablish my short hedge (I hate to chase down a short, it blows in my face so many times). Both because of the September/October seasonality but also because the Fed is likely to be active on the Open Mouth operations. I think there is...