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This is one of the reasons why I'm comfortable with my position in Pershing Square Holdings. Ackman essentially copied the Buffett strategy but with additional elements to boost returns like getting involved with the company by going activist. He made most of his money by investing in stable...

btw, what are these restrictions on foreigners?

Yeah, 100% cash is almost surely a mistake. Even if you catch a crisis like 2008. The thing is, those who were bearish and were about the crisis and went to cash, had a difficulty changing their tune and becoming bullish, because they felt so good/smart about being bearish (I know I did). Most...

https://www.ft.com/content/64ca3e5c-8e92-11e6-a72e-b428cb934b78?ftcamp=published_links%2Frss%2Fmarkets%2Ffeed%2F%2Fproduct FT on Brazil. The spending control law has passed on its first round (of 2) yesterday with 366 votes (309 were needed), that even though some representatives avoided...

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2055431&download=yes This paper shows similar ideas in a global scale. Low beta stocks have an edge "In terms of the investment theory, it is clear that the directive to invest in capitalizationweighted portfolios as a core strategy is...

Speaking of the healthcare short I thought this was interesting chart

Here is an old article I already wrote about but its worth revisiting Buffett's secret: 1.4-1.6 leverage applied to low beta stocks http://www.econ.yale.edu/~af227/pdf/Buffett's Alpha - Frazzini, Kabiller and Pedersen.pdf If you control for those factors Buffett has no edge. Leverage is an...

I believe that is called a dispersion trade. Atticus used to do that a fair amount back in the day

So the strategy that I use to macro trade and/or compound wealth is to own a diversified mix of stocks, government bonds, real estate, gold and cash in a "All-Weather" (aka Risk Parity) type portfolio, then use that portfolio as margin to put in specific trades that have the potential to boost...

https://www.invesco.com/portal/site/us/financial-professional/etfs/product-detail?productId=dbv

DBV buys the 3 highest yielding currencies and shorts the 3 lowest ones. But only among the G10

http://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21708242-candidate-either-made-huge-loss-or-concocted-one-taxing-patience "Mr Trump may also have benefited from another peculiarly American generosity: towards property moguls. Since 1986 most taxpayers have been unable to deduct losses which exceed...

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/euro-zone-inflation-soon-move-172926325.html sounds like its from the Onion but no, its legit

There is another one I forgot to mention, healthcare prices. It looks like that due pollution, poor diets, obsesity, people seem to be a short as they ever been on healthcare prices. No wonder they get so pissed off when Shkrelli, VRX or MYL pop drug prices. They know they are getting squeezed...

I wrote about valuations and personal finance here. Thoughts are appreciated https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/should-people-cheer-a-potential-collapse-in-us-stock-market-valuations.303429/

Here is something I like to think about. When people project long-term returns from asset classes, especifically in stocks, they look at current yields (like dividend or earnings yields) and add a component for the path of valuations going forward. So a typical calculation would be: 2.5% in...

A really big account could get access to exclusive brokers at JPM, MS, GS and there, if the person is sophisticated enough, have access to investments that are not avaliable to retail (certain stock markets, CDS, mortgages, etc) But for 95%+ of people, they are probably just fine at the retail...

Of course, the real reason these managers are doing that is because they were bearish and they missed the bottom. The 'reasons' they bring up is just to justify that mistake. We saw that in 2009, all the brillant people who predicted the crisis, missed the bottom and failed to reasses things...

As I have very costly learned in my trading/investing career, waiting for something cheap to get cheaper is a high wire act. Timing is already difficult, when you try to time cheap things, its just gets even more difficult

'Valuation timing' is similar to shorting (specially when you consider the career risks for the folks that are running OPM), shorting a cheap market with high expected returns, where prices lagged everything for a long-time and sentiment is bearish, is just a poor strategy imo. Even it works